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Mesoscale Discussion #0450 issued at 0909 UTC on 16 April 2011
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0450
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0409 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011
   
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA INTO WRN AND CNTRL SC
   
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 147...
   
VALID 160909Z - 161045Z
   
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 147 CONTINUES.
   
A NEW WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED BY 10Z EXPIRATION OF WW 147.
   
IN RESPONSE TO ONGOING SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS TO THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL DATA INDICATE A
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
SAVANNAH VALLEY AND CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING.  ALTHOUGH
LAPSE RATES ARE GENERALLY WEAK...THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
DAYBREAK.  ALTHOUGH A MORE SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORMS MAY BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY EAST OF ATHENS GA INTO WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA BY
11-13Z.  STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THIS POTENTIAL...AND...IF IT OCCURS...STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.
   
..KERR.. 04/16/2011
   
   
ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...
   
LAT...LON   34018356 34428323 34738253 34888137 34788062 33848048
            33178184 33028291 33418348 34018356 



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