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Mesoscale Discussion #0452 issued at 1439 UTC on 16 April 2011
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0452
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0939 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011
   
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN GA...CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS...SERN AND
EXTREME S-CENTRAL VA.
   
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 149...
   
VALID 161439Z - 161645Z
   
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 149 CONTINUES.
   
WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT DELINEATED BELOW.  SVR
POTENTIAL FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING OVER ERN
PORTIONS WW...AS WELL AS EWD ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN AND NEWD ALONG
PIEDMONT INTO PORTIONS VA.  ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS BEING
CONSIDERED FOR THOSE AREAS AS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EACH STRENGTHEN
THROUGH MIDDAY.
   
14Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL WV SWD ACROSS
EXTREME WRN VA ...NWRN SC...NEAR GMU...DBN...SWWD ACROSS APALACHEE
BAY.  COLD FRONT WILL ACT AS WRN BOUND FOR ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL
AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS WW AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  DIFFUSE WARM FRONT
-- WHICH ALSO ACTS AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE ALONG SRN EDGE OF
DENSE/MULTILEVEL CLOUD COVER -- WAS ANALYZED INVOF SC/NC
BORDER...AND WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS NC AND PERHAPS PORTIONS SRN VA
THROUGH MID-DAY.  WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW
POINTS RANGING FROM UPPER 60S F SERN GA TO COASTAL SC...INCREASING
TO UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S OVER NRN NC AND VA AS WARM FRONT PASSES AND
MORE SUSTAINED BREAKS APPEAR IN CLOUD COVER.  THIS ALSO WILL FOSTER
STRONGER SFC DIABATIC HEATING IN WARM-SECTOR AIR MASS THAT ALREADY
APPEARS MINIMALLY CAPPED...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
SOUNDINGS.  MLCAPE SHOULD RISE TO RANGE FROM AROUND 500 J/KG OVER
SERN VA/NERN NC...TO NEAR 1500 J/KG OVER CHS-SAV CORRIDOR.  AS THIS
OCCURS...RESULTING IN DEEPENING BUOYANT PROFILE THROUGH
TROPOSPHERE...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE  WITH APCH OF MID-UPPER
TROUGH NOW OVER TN VALLEY REGION.  BOTH PROCESSES SHOULD BOOST
EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO 55-70 KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF NC/SRN VA AND 45-60
KT ACROSS SC.  SRH AND LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED
NEAR WARM FRONT...ALTHOUGH HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LARGE
TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL TO ITS S AS WELL.
   
..EDWARDS.. 04/16/2011
   
   
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...
JAX...FFC...



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