MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011
  
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC
   
CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE 
   
VALID 161616Z - 161715Z
   
AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK FOR THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPDATE IS
FORTHCOMING FOR ERN NC.  THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG
SHEAR/MODERATE INSTABILITY...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING LENDS
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.
   
..SMITH.. 04/16/2011
   
  
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...