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Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 1953 UTC 11 January 2012

Hail probabilityTornado probabilityWind probability

SPC AC 111953
   
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CST WED JAN 11 2012
   
VALID 112000Z - 121200Z
   
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...
   
...SERN U.S...
   
HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THE SERN U.S...NAMELY
TO REDUCE THE WIND/HAIL THREAT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND TO
REMOVE THE SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FL PENINSULA
WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS QUITE WEAK.
   
WELL DEFINED UPPER VORT/LOW CENTER IS LIFTING ENEWD ALONG THE
TN/GA/NC BORDER.  A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IS AFFILIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE...MUCH OF IT NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG THOUGH
PRODUCING SOME SMALL HAIL.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SMALL-MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS IT CROSSES THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON.
   
MORE IMPORTANTLY...MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS IS SPREADING NWD TOWARD
THE NC COAST WITH SFC DEW POINTS NOW APPROACHING 60F.  UNTIL THIS
MOISTURE MOVES INLAND UPDRAFTS WILL STRUGGLE TO ATTAIN INTENSITY
WORTHY OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED
TORNADOES.  EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING THE OVERNIGHT SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUE.
   
..DARROW.. 01/11/2012
   
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST WED JAN 11 2012/
   
...NE SC/ERN NC THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
THE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AL THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NEWD
TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY TONIGHT AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...A LOW NEAR THE
AL/GA/TN BORDER WILL MOVE NNEWD IMMEDIATELY W OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW MAY FORM BY THIS EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT E OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE MIDLEVEL WAVE EJECTS NEWD...AND
THE WARM FRONT SPREADS INLAND.
   
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO
THE LOWER 60S AS THE WARM SECTOR BEGINS TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS
COASTAL SC.  THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO ERN NC LATER TODAY
INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM MOVES NEWD...RESULTING IN
MODEST LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION.  DESPITE RATHER POOR LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN A NARROW ZONE NEAR THE COAST IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...WHERE WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO.  
   
...FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...
A BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE W CENTRAL FL COAST.  THE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY BEING
MAINTAINED BY RICHER MOISTURE OVER THE E CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...WHEREAS A LITTLE DRIER AIR MASS RESIDES INLAND AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL SLOW SURFACE HEATING.  MEANWHILE...
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED ROTATING
STORMS...AND WILL REMAIN SO INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.  STILL...IT
APPEARS THAT THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT THE
INLAND RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO THIS AFTERNOON...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.  
   	
...N GA/ERN TN THIS AFTERNOON...
WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN A NARROW CORRIDOR
NEAR THE OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW...WHERE MID-UPPER 50S BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS AND SOME SURFACE HEATING PERSIST BENEATH A POCKET OF
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM.  A SMALL ARC OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...AND THERE
WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
   
..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 01/11/2012
   
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z



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