NOUS42 KILM 260900
PNSILM

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
500 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

THIS WEEK IS NATIONAL HURRICANE AWARENESS WEEK. IT IS TIME FOR YOU 
TO PREPARE FOR THE 2011 HURRICANE SEASON. THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE 
SEASON BEGINS EACH YEAR ON JUNE 1ST AND ENDS NOVEMBER 30TH. BEING 
PREPARED CAN MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN YOUR ABILITY TO COPE WHEN A 
STORM THREATENS.

TODAY'S TOPIC IS HURRICANE FORECASTING.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI FLORIDA FORECASTS THE 
PATH...SPEED...AND STRENGTH OF HURRICANES. DATA FROM WEATHER 
SATELLITES...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...AND OTHER SOURCES ARE USED IN 
COMPUTER FORECAST MODELS. 

FORECAST ACCURACY DECREASES WITH TIME...THE AVERAGE 5 DAY HURRICANE 
TRACK ERROR IS ABOUT 250 NAUTICAL MILES. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ALSO FORECASTS STORM SURGE HEIGHT AND COASTAL FLOODING. 

WORKING WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...WHICH FORECASTS 
EXPECTED RAINFALL. ALSO...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECAST 
CENTERS FORECAST EXPECTED FLOODING.

FACTORS IN LONGER TERM SEASONAL PREDICTION OF HURRICANE ACTIVITY ARE 
EXPECTED OCEAN TEMPERATURES AND HIGH ALTITUDE WINDS.

SINCE THE MID 1990S...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL UPSWING IN ANNUAL 
ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM THE LONG TERM AVERAGE OF ABOUT 11 
NAMED STORMS...6 HURRICANES AND 2 INTENSE HURRICANES OF AT LEAST 
CATEGORY 3 STRENGTH. THE HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK FOR THIS YEAR IS 
12 TO 18 NAMED STORMS...8 TO 12 HURRICANES...AND 3 TO 6 INTENSE 
HURRICANES.

WITH THE EXPLOSIVE INCREASE IN POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE 
ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS OVER THE LAST 25 YEARS...THERE IS POTENTIAL 
FOR HURRICANE DESTRUCTION EQUAL OR GREATER THAN THAT EXPERIENCED IN 
NEW ORLEANS IN THE AFTERMATH OF HURRICANE KATRINA IN 2005.

TO GET THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE CAPE FEAR 
REGION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILM/TROPICS

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