2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions
The 2009 Hurricane Season is just around the corner...June first to be exact and as usual
...there are no shortage of long range forecasts of just how active the season will be. Below are two
summaries of the forecasts from
Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk Inc.
The official forecast from The Climate Prediction Center
will be released in a few weeks.
Colorado State University
With their initial forecast issued on December 10, 2008...Dr. Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (CSU)
predicted another active year for the tropics in 2009:
14 Named Storms
7 Hurricanes
3 Intense Hurricanes(Category 3 or greater)
14 Named Storms
7 Hurricanes
3 Intense Hurricanes(Category 3 or greater)
Tropical Storm Risk Inc.
Tropical Storm Risk is a British private forecasting firm. With their initial forecast issued
on December 5, 2008...they predicted an active year in 2009:
14.8 Named Storms
7.7 Hurricanes
3.5 Intense Hurricanes(Category 3 or greater)
14.8 Named Storms
7.7 Hurricanes
3.5 Intense Hurricanes(Category 3 or greater)
NOAA
NOAA does not issue a forecast for the coming year in December
An Average Year
Numbers during an average year:
10.3 Named Storms
6.2 Hurricanes
2.7 Intense Hurricanes(Category 3 or greater)
10.3 Named Storms
6.2 Hurricanes
2.7 Intense Hurricanes(Category 3 or greater)
Colorado State University
The Colorado State Team actually decreased thier numbers for the 2009 season with their April update:
12 Named Storms
6 Hurricanes
2 Intense Hurricanes(Category 3 or greater)
12 Named Storms
6 Hurricanes
2 Intense Hurricanes(Category 3 or greater)
Tropical Storm Risk Inc.
With their April update...Tropical Storm Risk is continuing to forecast an active year in the
Alantic basin...even increasing their numbers slightly from December 2008.
15 Named Storms
7.8 Hurricanes
3.6 Intense Hurricanes(Category 3 or greater)
15 Named Storms
7.8 Hurricanes
3.6 Intense Hurricanes(Category 3 or greater)
NOAA
NOAA seems to be leaning toward a near normal season with their first forecast for 2009. Their
forecast is expressed in terms of probability...with each range having a certain probability of occurring.
You can read the complete forecast here.
Tropical Storm Risk Inc.
With their July update...Tropical Storm Risk has scaled back their forecast considerably from
early season numbers...altough they are up slightly from thier early June update.
11.4 Named Storms
5.6 Hurricanes
2.4 Intense Hurricanes(Category 3 or greater)
11.4 Named Storms
5.6 Hurricanes
2.4 Intense Hurricanes(Category 3 or greater)
National Weather Service
Weather Forecast Office, Wilmington NC
2015 Gardner Drive
Wilmington, NC 28405
(910) 762-4289
Page Author:
Web Master's E-mail: ilm.webmaste r@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: July 26, 2009
Weather Forecast Office, Wilmington NC
2015 Gardner Drive
Wilmington, NC 28405
(910) 762-4289
Page Author:
Web Master's E-mail: ilm.webmaste r@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: July 26, 2009