FXUS62 KILM 240808
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
308 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS BY WELL OFFSHORE LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BRING BACK MILDER AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED N OF CAPE HATTERAS 
EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING 
LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE AND FOGGY CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS 
THROUGH THIS MORNING. MODELS PORTRAY DRYING TAKING PLACE FROM ABOVE 
AND BELOW TODAY WITH STRATUS STUBBORNLY HANGING ON IN A LAYER NO 
MORE THAN 500-800 FT THICK AT ITS SHALLOWEST. GIVEN THE LOW SUN 
ANGLE AND WITH THE SHORTEST PERIOD OF DAYLIGHT FOR THE YEAR LESS 
THAN A MONTH AWAY...AND WITH HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY INCREASING ABOVE 
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...I AM INCLINED TO BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN 
CLOUDY TODAY. THE MODELS DO TRY TO BREAK THE INVERSION 
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. WILL 
FORECAST PERSISTENCE AND KEEP SKIES CLOUDY AS EVEN IF THE LOW CLOUDS 
BEGIN TO BREAK ACROSS THE GRAND STRAND AND POINTS SOUTH...MID AND 
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE STREAMING NORTHWARD AND SO CLOUDY NONETHELESS. 
AT ANY RATE...EXPECT LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE 
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. 

AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPSTREAM LONG-WAVE TROUGH...RAIN WILL BEGIN 
TO MIGRATE N AND NE ALONG THE COAST. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP ANY 
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM S AND SE OF THE FORECAST 
AREA UNTIL JUST AFTER DAYBREAK ON WED.

CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE THIS PERIOD. MAXIMUMS
WILL CREEP IN THE UPPER 50S...PERHAPS TOUCHING 60 DEGREES IN A FEW 
PLACES. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE RELUCTANT TO FALL AND MINIMUMS 
SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW THE HIGHS ACHIEVED TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM/WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH FEATURE WILL DEVELOP
SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN GOMEX THAT WILL CROSS FLORIDA AND MOVE UP
THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKNESS OF THE
FEATURE ALOFT AND THE 3 POTENTIAL VORTICITY UNITS SPUN UP IN THE
LOW LEVELS ON THE GFS INDICATE THAT ITS STRONGER SOLUTION CAN BE
RULED OUT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MINIMAL THEN AS IT REMAINS
OFFSHORE. CLOUD COVER A TOUGH ONE ON WEDNESDAY WITH UP TO 10
DEGREE RAMIFICATIONS TO THE TEMP FCST. HAVE KINDA SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BUT WITH A BIAS TOWARDS THE WARMER GUIDANCE AS THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOC WITH WEDGE MAY BACK JUST ENOUGH TO N OR
NW WHILE SOME WEAK VORT MAXES PROVIDE SOME MIXING THAT COULD ERODE
THE VERY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE THOUGH IN THE SW FLOW AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GOMEX LOW WILL AFFECT THE COAST...AS OPPOSED
TO THE LL MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE WEDGE. PERHAPS INLAND LOCALES
END UP SEEN MORE SUN AND HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPS THAN THE COAST.

STRONG COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING/EARLY FRIDAY 
NIGHT. THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL HAVE TAKEN ANY AND ALL MOISTURE AWAY 
THOUGH AND THE ACTUAL FROPA WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM/FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...CUTOFF TROUGH IN THE MIDATLANTIC WILL BE AS
PROGRESSIVE AS IT IS DEEP. THIS WILL MEAN A PERIOD OR TWO OF VERY
CHILLY WEATHER...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SOME MODERATION.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BETWEEN THIS EXITING TROUGH AND THE NEXT DEEP
ONE OUT WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. NIGHTS COULD REMAIN COOL DUE TO THE
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AS AFTERNOONS MODERATE. THIS NEXT TROUGH
SHOULD SEND A MOISTURE-LADEN FRONT OUR WAY NEXT WEEK BUT THE
TIMING IS PORTRAYED VERY DIFFERENTLY BY GUIDANCE. THE FASTER AND
DEEPER GFS EVEN IMPLIES THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN MAY BE IN THE
OFFERING AS SOON AS MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD KEEPING CEILINGS IFR OR LOWER. ANY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN 
CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LOWER AGAIN TO LIFR/IFR SHORTLY 
AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE GRADIENT TODAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE 
IS NOW N OF THE ARE AND MOVING AWAY. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THIS PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING 
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN PERIOD AND THEN 
STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES S OF THE WATERS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE 
WIND DIRECTION THROUGH DAYBREAK WED WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 10 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 1 FOOTERS VERY NEAR SHORE AND 
SOME 4 FOOTERS SNEAKING IN AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS.


SHORT TERM/WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS INITIALLY PRETTY LIGHT
WEDNESDAY. THE APPROACH OF A WEAK LOW CROSSING FLORIDA AND UP THE
COAST WELL OFFSHORE LATE WED AND WED NIGHT MAY PINCH THE GRADIENT
BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY. MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING A STRONGER LOW HAVE
CURRENTLY BEEN DISCOUNTED AS THEY SHOW STRONG EVIDENCE OF HAVING
GRID SCALE FEEDBACK. WEATHER HIGHLIGHT DEFINITELY STRONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY. THE SURGE TO FOLLOW WILL YIELD
WINDS CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY OF SCEC CAUTIONARY HEADLINES AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. THE OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE BUILDING
SEAS MOSTLY OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LONG TERM/FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...STRONG COLD SURGE ON FRIDAY LIKELY STILL
REQUIRING HEADLINES...EITHER SCEC CAUTIONARY OR OUTRIGHT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. AS STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LOOK FOR CONSIDERABLE DECREASE IN WINDSPEEDS AS DIRECTION
REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJD/DL