FXUS61 KILN 201001 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 601 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 .SYNOPSIS... WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY. THE LAST OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... DIMINISHING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT STARTED IN THE UPPER MIDWEST LAST NIGHT IS NOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS IS LAYING OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY. ONGOING STORMS MAY IMPACT THE NORTHWEST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MIDDAY AS CONVECTIVELY ENHANCE VORTICITY CENTER TRACKS EASTWARD. 00Z 4 KM WRF RUNS SUGGEST THAT COVERAGE COULD BE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO INCREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR TODAY. FORECAST SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE A BIT STRONGER THAN FORECAST DUE TO MCV. BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE A BIT TRICKY ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES DUE TO DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM LEFT OVER CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EARLY THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. BUT GENERALLY STAYED WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF PERSISTENCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... UNCERTAINTIES IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IN THE NEAR TERM JUST MULTIPLY WITH TIME LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING PROBABILITY OF STORMS AS WELL AS TIMING AND LOCATION. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION DURING THE DAY MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES BEFORE DIMINISHING/MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME ON MONDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER 00Z UKMET AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE SWINGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH. HAVE TAILORED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BUT READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUPPRESSED ON TUESDAY BY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BUT OTHERWISE DRIER WEATHER WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN FORECASTING A SHORT WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SO EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN. AFTER IT PASSES THE HIGH WILL BE REESTABLISHED FOR SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A FRONTAL BNDRY WAS STRETCHED OUT WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THROUGH 15Z...A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCT CONVECTION TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-70. THE BEST CHANCE OF A STORM WILL BE AT KDAY 12Z- 14Z. AFTER 15Z...INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAIN STORM COVERAGE WARRANTS JUST VCSH/CB AT THIS TIME THROUGH 23Z-01Z. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 18Z TO SW AROUND 12 KTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 00Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL SETTLE IN AFTER 08Z...WITH IFR LIKELY AT KLUK. OUTLOOK...TSTMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...