FXUS61 KILN 080920
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
420 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE BACK IN BEHIND THIS FRONT
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE 
UNITED STATES BUILDING NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT NORTH
WITH A SWRLY FLOW ACROSS ILN/S FA. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE 
WITH MAINLY THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS HAVE 
OPTED TO GO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES A LTL EAST OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CONTD TREND GOING ABOVE GUID
FOR LOWS.

ON BACKSIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE MID/UPR LEVEL MSTR TO 
INCREASE AND THICKEN ON MONDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO ON THE WARM
SIDE OF GUID ENVELOPE FOR HIGHS MONDAY. 

MID LEVEL S/W TO SHARPEN UP AND DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES
TUE/TUE NIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO
NRN OHIO LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TO SRN OHIO BY TUE AFTN. NUMERICAL
MODEL SOLN/S TRENDING SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH MAY BE DUE 
TO INTERACTION DUE TO IDA COMING INTO THE GULF STATES. BASED ON 
SLOWER FROPA WL INCREASE CLDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TREND LOWS ABOVE
GUIDANCE. FOR TUESDAY WL SHOW AN INCREASE TO CHC POPS DURG THE AFTN
WITH POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL FORCING LEADING TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.  
WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM HAVE PRECIP ENDING QUICKLY
TUE NIGHT AND CLDS DECREASING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION FOR
FROM MID WEEK ON. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN AND
MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THIS
COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST EXCEPT AT LUK
WHERE FOG MAY LOWER VISIBILITY TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
MVFR CEILING FORMATION TONIGHT BUT IT APPEARS MODELS HAVE OVERDONE
MOISTURE AT AROUND 2500 FT. CIRRUS DECK WILL MOVE IN AROUND 00Z. WINDS
WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO