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NOUS41 KLWX 231225
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DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-
042-050>057-501>504-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-131100-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 
725 AM EDT THU FEB 23 2012

...NEW FLOOD FORECAST SERVICES ON THE SOUTH FORK SHENANDOAH RIVER...
...FLOOD STAGES ALSO TO CHANGE ON PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH AND 
RAPIDAN RIVERS...

ON TUESDAY...MARCH 27TH 2012...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL 
INITIATE DAILY RIVER FORECAST SERVICES ON THE SOUTH FORK SHENANDOAH 
RIVER NEAR LURAY IN PAGE COUNTY VIRGINIA. PAGE COUNTY IS NOT COVERED 
BY EITHER OF THE OTHER FORECAST POINTS ON THE RIVER /LYNNWOOD AND 
FRONT ROYAL/...SO THE ADDITION OF THIS NEW LOCATION WILL PROVIDE 
FORECASTS AND WARNINGS TO INTERESTS NEAR THE RIVER IN PAGE COUNTY. 

72 HOUR FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED ROUTINELY EACH MORNING AND UPDATED 
AS NEEDED DURING TIMES OF EXPECTED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...RIVER 
FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED WHEN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE 
OR IMMINENT. 

THE ACTION STAGE FOR THIS REACH OF THE SOUTH FORK SHENANDOAH...THE 
POINT AT WHICH PERSONS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD BEGIN TAKING 
PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS...IS 13 FEET. FLOOD STAGE...WHERE IMPACTS TO 
PROPERTY BEGIN TO OCCUR...IS 14 FEET. MODERATE FLOOD LEVEL IS SET AT 
20 FEET...AND MAJOR FLOODING OCCURS ABOVE STAGES OF 25 FEET. THE 
FLOOD OF RECORD IS 26.95 FEET...WHICH OCCURRED ON SEPTEMBER 7TH 1996.

ADDITIONALLY...ON TUESDAY...MARCH 13TH 2012...THE FLOOD STAGES AT 
TWO RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS WILL BE LOWERED IN RESPONSE TO LOCAL 
NEEDS AND IMPACTS.

ON THE SHENANDOAH RIVER...THE FLOOD STAGE AT MILLVILLE IN JEFFERSON 
COUNTY WILL BE LOWERED FROM 13.5 FEET TO 10.0 FEET. SEVERAL ROADS 
ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD AT LEVELS AROUND 10 FEET...AND LOWERING THE 
FLOOD STAGE WILL PROVIDE TRANSPORTATION OFFICIALS AND LOCAL 
RESIDENTS ADDITIONAL NOTICE THAT THESE ROADS ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD. 
THIS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A MODEST INCREASE IN FLOOD WARNINGS AT 
THIS LOCATION. THE REACH OF THIS FORECAST POINT AFFECTS BOTH 
JEFFERSON COUNTY WEST VIRGINIA...AND CLARKE COUNTY VIRGINIA...AND 
BOTH COUNTIES WILL BE WARNED WHEN THE NEW...LOWER...FLOOD STAGE IS 
EXPECTED TO BE EXCEEDED.

ON THE RAPIDAN RIVER...THE FLOOD STAGE AT THE GAUGE SOUTH OF 
CULPEPER ON THE CULPEPER-ORANGE COUNTY BORDER WILL BE LOWERED FROM 
14 FEET TO 13 FEET. ROADS AND AGRICULTURAL LANDS ALONG THE RIVER 
BEGIN TO FLOOD AT THE 13 FOOT LEVEL...AND THEREFORE THE LOWERING OF 
THE FLOOD STAGE WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WARNING OF THESE 
OCCURRENCES. AS A RESULT OF THIS CHANGE...THE ACTION STAGE...WHICH 
WAS PREVIOUSLY 13 FEET...WILL BE LOWERED TO 11 FEET.

IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT THESE CHANGES...PLEASE CONTACT
JASON ELLIOTT
SENIOR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST
JASON.ELLIOTT@NOAA.GOV

$$

ELLIOTT


National Weather Service
Weather Forecast Office Baltimore/Washington
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Sterling, VA 20166
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Page last modified: Feb 29, 2012 5:28 PM EST
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