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Area Forecast Discussion

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FXUS61 KLWX 200747
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
347 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST CONTINUES TO SPREAD HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AS THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER OFFSHORE.
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS W/ YDA...THE WX STORY FOR THE MID ATLC RGN IS THE BATTLE BTWN
LOW PRES - WHICH MIGRATED FM NRN FL YDA TO ABT 160 MI E OF SAV
THIS MRNG...AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRES OVR SRN QUEBEC. WHAT THIS
MEANT TO THE FCST YDA...AND TDA...IS HIGH CLDS OVR VA/MD/DC. THESE
COULD EITHER BE CLASSIFIED AS BKN OR THIN OVC...AS IS EVIDENCED BY
THE MOON BEING DIMLY VSBL AT 3 AM...BUT THESE SHOULD BE MOVG TO THE E
ALONG W/ THE LOW BY LATE AFTN.

HIGH TDA IN THE U60S - RIGHT ARND CLIMO NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

WE ARE STILL XPCTG A PD OF CLRG TNGT AS THE LOW PULLS MOVES
FURTHER OFFSHORE. LOWS IN THE MU30S...WHICH IS PRBLY A DEG OR TWO
ABV THE REQUIRED NEEDED VALUES FOR A FROST ADVSRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MONDAY WHILE WE ARE EXPERIENCING ANOTHER QUIET WX DAY ACROSS THE 
REGION...A COUPLE OF FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS 
SRN CANADA. THE WRN SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLIDING TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS 
AND WILL PICK UP A DISSIPATING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. 
COMBINING THE MOISTURE FROM THE TWO AND PHASING THEM INTO ONE MUCH 
LONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME HRS ON MON. 
THIS WAVE WILL BE A SERIES OF SMALLER ZONES OF FORCING/LIFT - SO NOT 
A STEADY LINE OF CONVECTION OR STRATIFORM PRECIP BUT INSTEAD MERELY 
BATCHES OF THEM ALL ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. BY LATE MON...THE TROUGH 
AXIS WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE APLCNS...READY TO THRU OUR 
REGION ON TUE. BEFORE THEN...WE'LL TOP OUT AGAIN IN THE U60S/L70S 
OVER THE AREA ON MON AFTN FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE 
UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE L50S MON NIGHT. 

AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE EARLY 
TUE...IT WILL HELP TO ADD SOME INSTABILITY - ALONG W/ ANOTHER 
RELATIVELY WARM DAY. CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION IN EARNEST 
TUE MRNG...WHICH MAY LIMIT HEATING A FEW DEGREES ULTIMATELY AND HELP 
SLIGHTLY INHIBIT A STRONGER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE DAY. ONLY A 
COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE APPEARING ON AREA MODELS SOUNDINGS FOR 
TUE...FOR MULTIPLE MODELS AND OVER THE BEST POTENTIAL PART OF THE 
DAY FOR TSTMS. UNLIKE THE OTHER CONVECTIVE AND A FEW NON-CONVECTIVE 
EVENTS SO FAR THIS YEAR...SHEAR WILL BE LACKING - LESS THAN 20KT 
BULK AND MEAN LAYER SHEAR AT THE HEIGHT OF THE AFTN HEATING. ADD TO 
THAT THE LATEST MODEL TREND OF NEARLY DISINTEGRATING THE PRECIP 
ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY AS IT HAS MOVED ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUE 
AFTN/EVE. STILL SOME RESIDUAL ACTIVITY ACROSS DELMARVA AND THE 
TIDEWATER TUE NIGHT....BUT A QUICK DROP OFF IN PRECIP CHANCES TOWARD 
AND AFTER SUNSET. 

A MODEST REGION OF SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON 
WED...BRINGING GUSTY NW WINDS AND DRIER/COOLER AIR. NOT NEARLY AS 
POTENT AS THE STORM SYSTEM A WEEK AGO AT THE SAME TIME...BUT STILL 
ONLY ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE BARELY INTO THE L60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
AREA W/ A BRISK 15-25MPH NW WIND. A POTENT CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER 
THE NRN ROCKIES WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS PUNCH AS IT SLIDES EAST OF THE 
MISS RVR LATE THIS WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN GIVES THE MID ATLC 
ANOTHER QUIET WX DAY ON THU. ANOTHER COLD AND CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL 
BARREL ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND THE GREAT LAKES THU INTO FRI. BY 
THE TIME THE TAIL END OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE 
REGION...IT SHOULD BE LOSING MUCH OF ITS PRECIP W/ ONLY SCATTERED 
BATCHES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD TDA THRU MON MRNG. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG TOUGH FOR MUCH OF MONDAY...BUT THE UPPER 
CIRRUS WILL OVERCOME THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY - JUST AHEAD OF 
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS RELATIVELY WEAK FOR 
TUE AFTN/EVE...THOUGH A FEW TSTMS ACROSS STILL POSSIBLE FOR 
SCATTERED AREAS OF THE MID ATLC REGION. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN 
WORK ITS WAY OFF THE COAST INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS. HIGH PRESSURE 
AND SOME GUSTY NW WINDS ON WED - QUIETING DOWN OUR WX FOR THU 
BRIEFLY BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS THRU THE AREA ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

ON THE WATERS ATTM - LGT WINDS ON THE PTMC AND NE 5-10 KT ON THE
CHES BAY. THESE ARE XPCTD TO INCRS AFTR DAYBREAK AS THE PRES GRAD
BTWN THE SERN CSTL LOW AND THE NERN HIGH PRES GROWS STRONGER. SCA
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DAYLGT HRS THEN WINDS WKN TNGT.

WINDS WILL SLACK OFF OVER THE WATERS BY EARLY TUE...AS THE CENTER OF 
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND WINDS TURN SLY. A COLD FRONT WILL 
PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE TUE...BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED TSTMS JUST SOUTH OF THE METRO DC AREA. BREEZY 
NW WINDS OF WED AFTN...THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN OVERTAKE THE 
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. 

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS 
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ530-535-536-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     ANZ531>534-537-541>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS






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