FXUS61 KLWX 260729
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
MONDAY...AND A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. BERMUDA 
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA IS BRINGING CLR SKIES/BEAUTIFUL FULL MOON
OUTSIDE OUR FNT DOOR. IN THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA TEMPS IN THE
L40S...WHICH MEANS EVEN IF TEMPS DROP INTO THE M30S IT WOULD ONLY
BE FOR A SHORT PD OF TIME SO FROST SHOULDN'T BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM.
THE ADVSRY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM - WE'LL REVISIT THIS IN A FEW
HRS AND MAY DROP EARLY.

NICE WX ON TAP FOR TDA. NWRLY WINDS XPCTD TO DVLP AGN BY MID
MRNG...ALTHO NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS THE PAST TWO DAYS. HIGH TEPS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN YDA...REACHING L70S IN MOST
PLACES...LM60S IN THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRES CONTS OVR THE ERN U.S. TNGT. WINDS WL DROP OFF. LOWS IN
THE U30S W OF THE BLUE RDG....L50S IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE
BAY. 40S MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MEMORIAL DAY...ONLY WEATHER-RELATED CONCERN IS SUNSCREEN. LOW 
PRESSURE WILL PUSH NORTH FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS AN UPR RIDGE 
AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES. RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE 
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL MAKE FOR A SUNNY AND DRY HOLIDAY. ONLY 
A FEW CIRRUS SPREAD FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. A COOL...CRISP 
START TO THE DAY...THEN EXPECT A RAPID INCREASE TO THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER 
ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA. 80F POSSIBLE ALONG KEZF TO KCHO CORRIDOR AND 
IN THE CNTRL SHEN VLY...WITH MID TO UPR 70S MAX TEMPS REST OF THE 
CWA (INCL THE BALT-WASH METRO). LIGHT WEST WIND AROUND 5 MPH. 

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
TUESDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS REPLACED WITH A SUBTROPICAL 
AIRMASS. THE SFC LOW TUESDAY WILL BE UP OVER SRN MANITOBA...WITH THE 
SFC FRONT TRAILING THE UPR TROUGH AXIS THAT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE FRONT. 

BERMUDA HIGH SETS UP WITH THE FIRST HOT/HUMID PERIOD OF THE YEAR 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO 20C 850MB TEMPS IN THE 
00Z GFS OR ECMWF SO THE MAX TEMPS LOOK CAPPED AROUND 90F AS OF NOW. 
WITH HUMIDITY HIGHER AND AMPLE SUNSHINE...EXPECT A DIURNAL TREND IN 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR TERRAIN 
(THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDS TDA AND TNGT. WNWRLY WINDS GUSTING ABV 20 KT FM MID MRNG
THRU LATE AFTN.

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT WEST FLOW BECOMES SLY. 
SCT TSRA DVLP TUES ALONG A WARM FRONT. BERMUDA HIGH THEN REST OF THE 
WEEK WITH ISOL AFTERNOON TSRA COVERAGE...PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE DC 
METROS.

&&

.MARINE...

PRES GRAD CONTS ON THE E CST BTWN THE CUT OFF LOW OVR ME AND HIGH
PRES BLDG IN FM THE UPR GRT LKS. THE LWR BAY IS CURRENTLY XPRNCG
SCA LVL WINDS...AND XPCT ALL OF THE WATERS TO BE SEEING GUSTS OVR
20 KTS BY MID MRNG...SO HV XPANDED THE SCA TO INCLUDE THE UPPER
PTMC. NO PROBS ON THE WATERS TNGT.

LIGHT WLY FLOW (5 KFT) MEMORIAL DAY. SLY FLOW LOOKS TO CHANNEL 
MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE OF SCA CRITERIA 
GUSTS (18 KT) IS TOO LOW AS OF NOW. SLY FLOW GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT 
REST OF THE WEEK AS A BERMUDA HIGH SETS UP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TDA - DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S...TEMPS APPROACHING 70. RH VALUES COULD
APPROACH OR FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER...WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS AND FUEL MOISTURES REMAIN
HIGH.


&&

.CLIMATE...

WRITTEN ON SAT - BASED ON PRELIMINARY STATISTICS...THE SAT MORNING
LOW OF 46 AT DCA IS THE COOLEST LOW TEMPERATURE SO LATE IN THE
SPRING SINCE 1996 /MAY 30TH/. IF THE LOW AT DCA DROPS BELOW 50
TONIGHT...IT WILL BE THE FIRST TIME WITH THREE CONSECUTIVE LOWS
BELOW 50 THIS LATE IN THE SEASON SINCE 1967.

*AT 3 AM THE DCA TEMP IS 56...SO THIS MAY NOT BE REALIZED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-503-505-
     506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     ANZ530>534-537>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/BAJ