FXUS61 KLWX 231847
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
247 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
RESIDE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS 
AFTERNOON...BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME BREAKS
DEVELOPING WHICH WILL ENHANCE HEATING/INSTABILITY DURING THE MID-
LATE AFTERNOON.

ALREADY HAVE CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS STARTING TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE OHIO VALLEY TROUGH...AND THERE/S ALSO A LEE
TROUGH IN PLACE. THESE WILL SERVE AS INITIAL TRIGGERS AND THERE IS
ALSO THE COLD FRONT TO CONSIDER WHICH WILL ALSO SUPPORT CONVECTION
INTO THE EVENING.

WHILE INITIAL CONVECTION MAY LACK ORGANIZATION...AS WIND FIELDS
IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND
THIS COMBINED WITH EXISTING INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP TO FAVOR
BETTER ORGANIZATION /MULTICELL CLUSTERS/ OF STORMS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. 

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN VULNERABLE PLACES OF
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE 1 HR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE MAY ONLY BE AROUND 1/2 INCH. STORMS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING IN THESE LOCATIONS INTO EARLY EVENING. 

SEVERITY OF STORMS SHOULD WANE AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ITSELF WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION
GOING WELL INTO THE EVENING.

WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE WITH COOLER AIR
MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY.

FRIDAY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE A DIFFERENT DAY WITH MAXIMA
RELUCTANT TO RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY WITH LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION AT PLAY AND AN UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAXIMA IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S CAN BE EXPECTED. DECENT GRADIENT WITH COLD ADVECTION
WILL BRING A WINDY DAY...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY OVER 35 MPH AT TIMES.

WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND ALSO
SCATTERED SHOWERS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND ALSO CAN/T RULE
OUT SOME SMALL HAIL DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS STAY UP
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO NO FROST IS EXPECTED. BUT TEMPERATURES COULD
DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING OVER THE HIGHLANDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WINDY AND COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE SHOULD MAKE A RETURN. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
H5 RISES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG TERM AS BERMUDA HIGH STARTS SETTING UP 
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE LIKELY ON 
TUESDAY PER 12Z GFS. MONDAY APPEARS STABLE WITH LITTLE OR NO MODEL 
CAPE. ON TUESDAY...INSTABILITY STARTS TO WORK INTO THE SHEN VALLEY 
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS 
ENTIRE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE AROUND CLIMO...THEN INCREASING UP 
TO 10 DEG ABV CLIMO WITH MAX TEMPS APPROACHING 90 WEDNESDAY AND 
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED AND A SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. STARTED THE TAFS WITH VCTS...BUT WITH POPS
RAMPING UP TO LIKELY MID-LATE AFTERNOON PREVAILING TSRA WITH MVFR
VSBYS ARE IN THE TAFS. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY TO ADD MORE
DETAIL TO TIMING/IMPACT AT EACH TERMINAL. EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ON FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT MAY PRODUCE GUSTIER WINDS. 

STRONG NWLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPR LOW
REMAINS IN THE REGION AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. VFR EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN A CANADIAN AIRMASS BEFORE A MIDWEEK WARM FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW.
BIGGER CONCERN IS FROM CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH CAN
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH COULD REQUIRE SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON FRIDAY...FOR A
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH GALES DUE TO
GRADIENT EFFECTS ALONE. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS. 

NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPR LOW
PERSIST OVER THE REGION AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. MORE
TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER A CANADIAN AIRMASS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES WERE RUNNING 1/4 TO 1/2 FT THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY INCREASE MORE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE UPCOMING TIDE IS THE LOWER OF THE NEXT TWO AND
ANOMALIES EVEN UP TO 1 FT WOULD NOT LIKELY RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING. THEREFORE...NO COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. 

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     ANZ531>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR 
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BPP/BAJ
MARINE...BPP/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP