FXUS61 KLWX 200746
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
346 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WILL BUILD INTO THE 
MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES MAY
APPROACH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OCCASIONALLY WORKING MIDNIGHT SHIFT HAS BENEFITS... WALKING OUTSIDE 
TO TAKE AN OB AT 2 AM REVEALS CLR SKIES...COMFORTABLE TEMPS...AND 
QUIET. VERY NICE.

HIGH PRES HAS MIGRATED FM LAKE HURON TO LAKE ERIE IN THE PAST 24
HRS. N OF THE PTMC SKIES ARE CLR..W/ SCT/BKN SC FM FAUQUIER CO S.
SKIES OVR THE RGN XPCTD TO BE GNRLY CLR...AFTN CU DVLPMNT PSBL OVR
THE MTNS. ISOLD RW PSBL OVR THE MTNS LATE THIS AFTN.

HIGH TEMPS RMN AT BAY. A COUPLE OF NGTS AGO I WROTE THAT 100 DEGS
WSA XPRNCD IN THR MID ATLC EACH OF THE LAST TWO JUNES. SO FAR THIS
MONTH THE HIGHEST TEMPS SEEN AT BOTH DCA AND BWI HAS BEEN 91.
TDA'S HIGH TEMPS WL BE CLOSER TO 80...L70S IN THE HIGHLANDS.

HIGH PRES TO CONTINUE OVR THE MID ATLANTIC TNGT. ANOTHER PLSNT 
NGT...LOWS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS BEING XPRNCD THIS NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL EXTEND WWD TOWARD THE ERN
SEABOARD THRU THE WEEKEND. LGT SLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL YIELD A MODEST INCREASE IN TEMPS AND HUMIDITY EACH DAY. FCST
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 80S DURING THE SHORT TERM ALTHOUGH THE
URBAN AREAS MAY REACH 90F ON SUN.

SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO TRANQUIL WX THRU 
THE WEEKEND. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...ISO 
AND CONFINED TO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. 

WILL NEED TO MONITOR A WAVE OF LOPRES DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA 
COAST LATE THIS WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS LOW EMBEDDED IN
WEAK STEERING FLOW WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE...KEEPING IT SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. IT MAY COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT FORCING IS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIPRES WILL REMAIN PARKED OFF THE EAST COAST. NRN PERIPHERY OF THE 
UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY MIDWEEK AS THE SUB-TROPICAL 
JET STREAM AND STORM TRACK SHIFTS SWD. IN CONJUCTION WITH INCREASING 
HEAT AND HUMIDITY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE EACH 
DAY. POPS REMAIN LOW THOUGH DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVR MID ATLC TDA/TNGT. NO PROBS XPCTD FOR AVIATION.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU ERY NEXT WEEK WITH HIPRES IN CONTROL. 
RADIATIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF VSBY 
RESTRICTIONS ERY EACH MRNG. 

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BLO SCA VALUES TDA AND TNGT.

LGT SE WINDS FRI WILL BECOME SLY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CSTL FLD ADVSRY IN EFFECT FOR THE WRN SHORE OF THE CHES BAY.
ANNAPOLIS CURRENTLY SEEING 2.5 FT...MINOR FLD LVL IS 2.4 FT. LGT
ERLY FLOW WL CONT TDA AND TNGT...BUT THE CURRENT HIGH TIDE CYCLE
IS THE HIGHER OF THE TWO...W/ THE NEXT IN ANNAPOLIS (2:49 PM)
ASTRONOMICALLY 0.7 FT LOWER. HENCE WL NOT BE XTNDG THE FLD ADVSRY
INTO THE DAYLGT HRS. AS LTL SHOULD CHG METEOROLOGICALLY IT IS LKLY
THAT THE DAY...OR EVE...SHIFT WL NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER CSTL FLD
ADVSRY FOR TNGT. FRI ERLY MRNG HIGH TIDE AT ANNAPOLIS WL BE AT
3:43 AM.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ007-
     011-014-017-018.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
WOODY!/KLEIN