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Area Forecast Discussion

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FXUS61 KLWX 181852
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
252 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL STRETCH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL HAVE SOME STRATOCU DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW IN SOME AREAS EAST OF 
THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH AMPLE CIRRUS OVERTOP WELL TO THE NORTH OF LOW 
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TO KEEP 
TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY...BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD RISE AT LEAST INTO 
THE MID 50S BY LATE AFTERNOON. 

RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE 
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS 
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND EMERGE OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA SATURDAY. LOTS 
OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW...BUT AT THIS 
TIME THE RAINFALL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF 
THE CWA. 

IN ADDITION...SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD ALLOW 
FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP BOOST 
TEMPERATURES OVER TODAY/S MAXIMA...POSSIBLY BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR 
MID APRIL. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL 
HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC 
COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. WINDS 
WILL BE NORTHEAST AND LIGHT.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS 
OFFSHORE ONLY TO HUG THE COASTAL AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL REACH THE 
MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 
AN UPPER LEVEL THROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN US OVER THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORKWEEK. THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE PROGRESSING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING...LIKELY BRINGING RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY IN PREFRONTAL WARM AIR ADVECTION. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SO LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT MAY HAVE
TO ADD THUNDER IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT SOLAR HEATING WILL BE
PLENTIFUL ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND 
WEDNESDAYS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN 
TUESDAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD 
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK...LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS 
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY 
COULD BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. EXPECT SCT STRATOCU 
WITH BASES 3-4FT TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN MAINLY 
CIRRUS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE VALID TAF 
PERIOD. 

VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN 
CONTROL. WINDS NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY 
BY MONDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THE AREA TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
E FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE N FOR SATURDAY...BUT SPEEDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AND HUG THE COAST...KEEPING A SLIGHT 
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN BREEZY POST
FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BPP/CEB/KLW
MARINE...BPP/CEB/KLW






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