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Area Forecast Discussion

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FXUS61 KLWX 211320
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
920 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF SFC HIPRES HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF THE 
CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS MRNG WHILE SFC RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO 
EXTEND SW-WD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. THE CUTOFF LOW JUST OFF THE NC 
COAST YDA HAS DRIFTED FARTHER OFFSHORE TDA...ALLOWING FOR AN UPPER 
RIDGE TO BUILD UPSTREAM OF THE LOW AND OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE 
RESULTANT PATTERN WILL YIELD SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. EVEN 
WITH A RELATIVELY COLD START TO THE DAY...TEMPS WILL RISE SHARPLY 
THIS MRNG AS THE STRONG BUT SHALLOW NOCTURNAL INVERSION MIXES OUT. 
THE 12Z IAD RAOB SOUNDING SUPPORTS RAISING MAX TEMP FCST BY SEVERAL 
DEGREES ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH HIGHS TDA IN THE 70S. THERE WILL BE 
A ELY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WHICH SHOULD KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR THE 
CHSPK BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC COOLER AS WATER TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 
MID 50S.

HI CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST WILL 
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTN AND TNGT. SFC LOPRES WILL 
STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TNGT. ATTENDANT 
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TNGT. THE INCREASING 
CLOUD COVER AND SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CURB RADIATIONAL 
COOLING AND MITIGATE CONCERNS OF FROST/FREEZE. FCST MIN TEMPS ARE IN 
THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY WHILE 
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING PASSES THROUGH OUR 
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS...DESPITE CLOUD COVER 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 
LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. 

THE COMBINATION OF WARMER AIR AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE 
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. 
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH
THE FRONT TO COMBINE WITH THE INSTABILITY...CAUSING SOME SHOWERS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS WELL. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED
DUE TO THE LOW INSTABILITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST TUESDAY EVENING. ANY LEFTOVER 
SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN MARYLAND WILL END DURING THIS TIME. 
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR 
TUESDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S ALONG THE RIDGE 
TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO NEAR 50 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON 
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY WHILE HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE GUSTY NORTHWEST 
WINDS...AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD 
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CAUSING DRY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS. 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN
THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OF THE COAST FRIDAY.

A RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL CAUSE WARMER CONDITIONS LATE IN 
THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY. CHILLIER 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR TDA AND TNGT. ELY WINDS THIS MRNG WILL BECOME SELY THIS AFTN
AND SLY TNGT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LGT /BELOW 10 KT/.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME TUESDAY THROUGH 
FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
CIGS/VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY BE REDUCED IN ANY CONVECTION. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO DECREASE.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE 
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL YIELD LIGHT WINDS FOR THE WATERS THRU
TNGT. NELY WINDS THIS MRNG WILL BECOME ELY THIS AFTN AND SELY
TNGT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 10 KT DURING THIS TIME BUT A FEW
GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE IN THE MAIN STEM OF THE CHSPK BAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. 
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE 
GRADUALLY DECREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL 
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 
KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LGT NE WINDS THIS MRNG WILL BECOME ELY THIS AFTN AND SELY TNGT.
POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MRNG ALONG THE WRN
SHORE OF THE MD CHSPK BAY AS A RESULT OF THIS ONSHORE FLOW AND ARE
CURRENTLY ALMOST ONE-HALF FOOT. LATEST CBOFS GUIDANCE INDICATES
ANOMALIES INCREASING TO ABOUT ONE FOOT BY TUE MRNG. THIS WOULD
KEEP TIDAL LEVELS ABOUT ONE-QUARTER FOOT BELOW COASTAL FLOOD
THRESHOLD AT ANNAPOLIS AND GREATER THAN ONE-HALF FOOT BELOW
COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD AT BALTIMORE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JRK/BJL
NEAR TERM...JRK
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...JRK/BJL 
MARINE...JRK/BJL 
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JRK






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Page last modified: Sep 24, 2008 2:00 PM EDT
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