FXUS61 KLWX 240948
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
548 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESIDE OVER THE
AREA TODAY...AND THEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 07Z...COLD ANAFRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. PRECIP 
HAS PUSHED TO THE ERN SHORE WITH LIGHT WLY FLOW ACROSS THE BALT-WASH 
METRO...GUSTY NWLY FLOW OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WITH LIGHT 
PRECIP AND COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. AN UPR 
TROUGH AXIS IS EVIDENT AS THE BACK EDGE OF A CLOUD SHIELD OVER NWRN 
OH. THE COLD FRONT AND UPR TROUGH/DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPR LOW 
WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. 
 
THIS COLD CORE TROUGH/LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA 
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 30 
TO 35 MPH...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
LOW/TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT WHICH WILL SHUNT THE LOW 
AND RELATED PRECIP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. 
CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM...ALONG WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION 
WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT BY LATE MAY STANDARDS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO 
MID 40S IN THE SUBURBS (WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPR 30S)...AROUND 
50F IN URBAN AND NEAR SHORE LOCALES. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EXPECT 
UPR 30S TO LOW 40S. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG AND WEST 
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE LOW 30S ARE EXPECTED. DOWNSLOPING FLOW 
SHOULD ACTUALLY MODERATE TEMPS AT KW99 AND KCBE OVERNIGHT. WIND 
CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS MID TO UPR 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA FOR THE WKND. IF MEM DAY WKND IS THE
"UNOFFICIAL START OF SUMMER" THEN SUMMER IS OFF TO A PRETTY FINE
START - BUT MAYBE NOT FOR SWIMMING. I SUSPECT POOL WATER MAY BE A BIT ON
THE COOL SIDE - IF YOU GO TO OUR WEB PAGE AND LOOK AT THE TEMP
GRAPHS FOR 2013 YOU SEE THAT WE'VE HAD A FAIR AMT OF AVG OR BLO
AVG TEMPS SINCE MAR..AND THE COMING NGTS WL DO NOTHING TO HELP
WATER TEMPS.

HIGHS SAT IN THE MU60S...THEN SLOWLY WARMING TO THE M70S BY MON.
LOWS SAT NGT RANGING FM THE M30S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO A50 ON THE WRN
SHORE OF THE CHES BAY. MOST OF THE RGN WL DROP TO THE 40S SAT
NGT...THEN A LTL WARMER EACH OF THE FOLLOWING NGTS OF THE LONG
WKND.

BY TUE THE RGN WL BEGIN A WARMUP WHICH REALLY WL MAKE TEMPS FEEL
SUMMER-LK FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES WL MOVE OFF THE
CST ALLOWING THE HEAT PUMP TO TURN BACK ON IN THE MID ATLC. TUE
SHOULD APRCH 80 FOR HIGHS...AND THEN CLIMBING A FEW DEGS EACH DAY.
BY FRI RGN SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF U80S.

NOT A LOT TO GRAB ONTO REGARDING PCPN FCST IN THE WK AHD. MOST
LKLY DURG THE 2ND HALF OF THE WK THERE'LL BE AFTN SCT CONVCTN
FORMING OVR THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG BEFORE SUNRISE WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH 
DAYBREAK. NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD 
FRONT. NEAR MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER AN 
UPR LOW. GUSTS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT 20 TO 25 KT THOUGH CIGS WILL RISE 
ABOVE 5 KFT.

IN THE XNTD VFR CNDS ARE XPCTD DURG THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME SAT-TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT 
AS AN UPR LOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. 
SCA IN EFFECT. CHANCE FOR BRIEF GALES THIS EVENING.

PORTIONS OF THE WATERS COULD XPRNC SCA LVL WINDS SUN AFTN.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!