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Area Forecast Discussion

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FXUS61 KLWX 230755
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEING USHERED IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT 
MOVED THRU EARLIER IN THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS SWEEPING ACROSS THE 
REGION...AS THEY WILL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. A POTENT VORT LOBE 
SWINGING DOWN ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON LINE IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS 
FEATURE WILL BE MIXING-DOWN THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COMING 
HRS...HELPING TO DROP TEMPS DOWN INTO THE M-U40S BY THE PREDAWN HRS 
WHICH IS ACTUALLY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVG FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. 

AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AND THE SUN COMES OUT IN THE COMING HRS...MORE OF 
THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER 
VORT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST NEAR DAWN...W/ THE SUBSIDENCE REGION 
SETTING UP DIRECTLY OVER ERN MD AND TAPERING OFF INTO NRN VA. TEMPS 
WILL EVENTUALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE L-M60S THIS AFTN...BUT WINDS IN 
THE 20-30MPH RANGE WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHILL FACTOR IN THE AIR 
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL PEAK NEAR 40MPH 
DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTN DURING PEAK HEATING. 

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW RHS AND LOW FUEL MOISTURES WILL 
CREATE THE ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER TODAY - SO A RED FLAG WARNING 
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HRS TODAY. 
SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW.

ONCE THE UPPER VORT COMPLETELY MOVES OFF THE COAST SLOWLY INTO THU 
MRNG...WINDS WILL DROP OFF OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION. NERN MD 
WILL REMAIN THE SOME OF THE BREEZIER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...SINCE 
THE RIBBON OF UPPER VORTICITY WILL STILL BE HANGING OUT OVER 
DELMARVA - VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE COAST. A DAY'S WORTH OF 
DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK DOWN AGAIN INTO THE M-U30S FOR 
OVERNIGHT LOWS. A FEW AREAS OF THE CWA LIKE THE APLCNS AND SHEN VLY 
WILL SEE TEMPS HOVERING AROUND FREEZING. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD DURING THIS TIME. PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. SOME AREAS
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
MAY REACH INTO THE 70S.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS TO
NEAR 50 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. 

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS WITH IT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SO ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. 

THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. SATURDAY WILL TURN OUT
MILD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY DUE TO A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING DRY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS. 

CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE DURATION OF THE CURRENT TAF 
PERIOD. MID-20KT RANGE GUSTS ALREADY HAVE BEEN SPREADING OVER THE 
AREA IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HRS...W/ A SOLID 12-OR-SO MORE HRS TO GO 
W/ THE STRONGER TIER OF WINDS. AFTER SUNRISE...GUSTS AOB 30KT WILL 
BEGIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA - ESPEC OVER NRN MD AND JUST INTO NRN 
VA...ALL OUT OF THE NW TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF TO 
15-20KT LATER THIS EVE AFTER SUNSET BUT STAY BREEZY OVER THE I-95 
CORRIDOR AND EAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS FOR THE AREA WEST 
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ACROSS KMRB AND KCHO. 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS THURSDAY EVENING WILL SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
FRIDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY. 

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND IT WILL STALL OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. 

&&

.MARINE...
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER-END SCA CRITERIA RANGE ARE 
APPEARING OVER THE WATER...MAINLY OVER THE NRN MD BAY OVERNIGHT. 
MORE MARGINAL GUSTS EXIST OVER THE REST OF THE BAY/TP RVR. WINDS 
BEHIND A COLD FRONT HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. ONCE THE 
SUN RISES IN A FEW HRS...HIGHER WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE 
ENTIRETY OVER THE MD BAY AND TP RVR AND GALE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO 
APPEAR FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HRS. HEADING INTO THE LATE EVE 
HRS...WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO A GENERAL 15-20KT RANGE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. 


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS REPLACED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MUCH OF 
THE MID ATLC REGION TODAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE STRONGER OVER NRN AND 
ERN MD...THOUGH THE LOWEST RHS/HIGHEST TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE LOWER 
NRN VA PIEDMONT. ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVED A COUPLE/FEW TENTHS 
OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL FAIRLY QUICKLY BE 
NULLIFIED BY THE RELENTLESS AND DRY NW WINDS FOR MOST OF TODAY. 
GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30MPH HAVE ALREADY BEEN SPREADING ACROSS THE 
REGION IN THE PAST FEW HRS...GETTING STRONGER AND DRIER AFTER 
SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP 
TO THE U20S/L30S. LATER THIS EVE...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP DOWN TO 
MORE OF A 10-15MPH BREEZE. 

DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE EVEN LOWER RH VALUES THURSDAY...BUT WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND WHERE THE WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST. 

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE OUT TO BE LIGHT.  

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS WILL CAUSE
TIDAL BLOWOUT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT NOT AS STRONG. HOWEVER...TIDAL BLOWOUT CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. 

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS 
     EVENING FOR DCZ001.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR DCZ001.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS 
     EVENING FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-502.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-018.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS 
     EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050>057-501-502-504.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ054.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS 
     EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT 
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/GMS
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
FIRE WEATHER...BJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GMS/BJL






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