October 16, 2012 - October to date has been wet for some while at the same time dry for others in the northern portion of the MARFC service area. The wettest areas have been from northern New Jersey southwest though southeast Pennsylvania where rain has been 1/2 to over 1 inch above normal. Elsewhere in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and south-central New York (the majority of the region), rain has been mostly below normal by 1/2 to 1 inch. Over the past 90 day period dating back to the middle of July, rainfall has ranged from near normal to 2 or 3 inches above normal. The wettest areas have been south-central Pennsylvania as well as the Catskill and Pocono Mountain areas where rainfall has been 3 to 7 inches above normal.

Current (October 16) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that streamflows are mostly normal, though areas from northern New Jersey southwest into southeast Pennsylvania are above normal. Groundwater levels are normal or above normal.

The weather outlook through the end of October calls for near or above normal rainfall and temperatures. The Climate Prediction Center's 30 day outlook for October calls for above average precipitation along with below average temperatures. The 90 day outlook for October through December calls for near average precipitation along with above average temperatures.

The outlook for water resources for the next several weeks and through the remainder of the year looks good to very good. We are heading deeper into the autumn season and vegetation is gradually becoming dormant. The water recharge season has begun or will begin soon with water supplies and resources in very good shape for the northern portion of the MARFC service area. Even central and southern New Jersey has been picking up more rainfall. The overall trend of near or above normal precipitation is expected to continue, even for New Jersey. So, current water supplies and resources are likely to continue to increase over the next several weeks.

In summary, the northern portion of the MARFC service area has sufficient to abundant water resources and water supplies. We can expect these water resources to remain stable or increase in the upcoming weeks and months. With near or above normal rainfall expected to continue, water resources should remain sufficient or abundant and no water shortages are expected in the near term or for the rest of 2012.

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