Potential Exists for Major Rain Event Early in the Outlook Period>

October 26, 2012 - October to date has been wet for some while at the same time dry for others in the northern portion of the MARFC service area. The wettest areas have been from the Catskill Region of New York and northern New Jersey southwest into southeast Pennsylvania where rain has been 1 to over 2 inches above normal. Elsewhere in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and south-central New York, rain has been mostly below normal by 1/2 to 1 inch. Over the past 90 day period dating back to late July, rainfall has been near normal or 2 to 4 inches above normal. The wettest areas have been the Catskill and Pocono Mountain areas where rainfall has been 4 to over 6 inches above normal.

Current (October 26) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that streamflows are mostly normal, with some areas in far eastern Pennsylvania and the Catskills of New York running above normal. Groundwater levels are normal or above normal.

The weather outlook through the first week of November calls for much above average precipitation in the short term due to the likely passage of tropical system "Sandy." Afterwards, near or above normal precipitation is expected. Temperatures should be near or below normal. The Climate Prediction Center's 30 day outlook for November as well as the 90 day outlook for November, 2012 through January, 2013 calls for near average precipitation and temperatures.

The outlook for water resources for the next several weeks and through the remainder of the year looks very good. In fact, current expectations indicate that precipitation early in the period is likely to be excessive in many, or possibly even all, parts of south-central New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. Heading deeper into the autumn season, this scenario would likely ensure abundant water resources for the next several months. The overall trend of near or above normal precipitation is expected to continue allowing water supplies and resources to continue to increase over the next several weeks and months, even after any short term heavy rains.

In summary, the northern portion of the MARFC service area has sufficient to abundant water resources and water supplies. These water resources are likely to increase in the upcoming weeks and months. With near or above normal rainfall expected to continue, water resources should remain sufficient or abundant and no water shortages are expected at least through the rest of 2012.