November 21, 2012 - The first three weeks of November were quite dry with most places in the northern portion of the MARFC service area receiving only between 1/3 and 3/4 inches of precipitation. The southern half of New Jersey had a bit more of generally around one inch. Over the past 90 day period, precipitation has been near normal in many locations. However, precipitation (from the Catskill Region of New York and northwest New Jersey stretching southwest to south-central Pennsylvania along with the southern half of New Jersey) is 3 to 7 inches above normal.

Current (November 21) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that streamflows are near normal, though flows in northern New Jersey have begun to fall below normal. Groundwater levels are normal or above normal.

The weather outlook for the next couple of weeks calls for little or no precipitation in the next several days but then near or above average precipitation. Temperatures should be near normal early in the period, but then fall back to below normal levels. The Climate Prediction Center's 30 day outlook for November as well as the 90 day outlook for November, 2012 through January, 2013 calls for near average precipitation and temperatures.

The outlook for water resources for the next several weeks and into early 2013 looks very good. Evapo-transpiration has become fairly minimal likely ensuring that abundant water resources will continue for the next several months. Only an extended period of dry weather (below or much below average precipitation) of at least several weeks would reverse this trend. Though we are currently in one of those dry periods, near or above normal precipitation is expected to return. If not, then this outlook may be downgraded. Water supplies and resources are likely to resume increasing once precipitation returns.

In summary, the northern portion of the MARFC service area has abundant water resources and water supplies. These water resources are likely to increase in the upcoming weeks. With near or above normal precipitation expected to return, water resources should remain abundant and no water shortages are expected at least through the early parts of 2013.