November 29, 2012 - November has been quite dry with most places in the northern portion of the MARFC service area receiving only between 1/2 and 1 1/2 inches of precipitation. Much of central and southern New Jersey has had a bit more of 1 1/2 to nearly 2 inches. Over the past 90 day period, precipitation has been near normal in many locations. However, precipitation (from the Catskill Region of New York and northwest New Jersey stretching southwest to south-central Pennsylvania along with the southern half of New Jersey) is 3 to 7 inches above normal. Year to date precipitation for 2012 has been fairly typical overall. The wettest area has been in south-central Pennsylvania with amounts 4 to 7 inches above normal. The dryest areas have been in much of the northern half of New Jersey along with the Philadelphia area and adjoining sections of New Jersey. In these areas, precipitation has been 6 to 10 inches below average.

Current (November 29) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that streamflows are near normal in the southern half of Pennsylvania and the southern half of New Jersey. Elsewhere, flows are below to much below normal. Groundwater levels are mostly around normal. The drop in flows and groundwater levels reflect the lack of precipitation in November.

Though some snow has fallen lately over much of south-central New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, amounts have not been hydrologically significant.

The weather outlook for the next couple of weeks calls for little or no precipitation in the next several days but then near or above average precipitation. Temperatures should be, overall, near or above normal. The Climate Prediction Center's 30 day outlook for December as well as the 90 day outlook for December, 2012 through February, 2013 calls for near average precipitation and temperatures. Consistent near or above average precipitation has, at least temporarily, come to an end.

The outlook for water resources for the next several weeks and into early 2013 looks good to very good. Evapo-transpiration has become minimal likely ensuring that sufficient to abundant water resources will continue for the next several weeks. However, the extended period of dry weather (below or much below average precipitation) that we have been experiencing has begun to reverse this trend. Unless near or even above normal precipitation returns, water resources and supplies will begin to increasingly suffer. Nevertheless, for now, water supplies and resources are expected to remain sufficient to abundant at least into early 2013.

In summary, the northern portion of the MARFC service area has abundant water resources and water supplies. These water resources are likely to remain stable in the upcoming weeks. With generally near normal precipitation expected for awhile, water resources should remain sufficient to abundant and no water shortages are expected at least through the early parts of 2013.