April 15, 2013 - April rainfall so far has been nearly normal, plus or minus up to 1/2 inch, for areas in south-central New York, north-central Pennsylvania, and most of New Jersey. A dry zone, with rainfall running from 1/2 to 1 inch below normal, extends from northern New Jersey and northeast Pennsylvania southwest to south-central Pennsylvania. Year to date precipitation has been around 2 to over 4 inches below average for most areas, though amounts are more like an inch or two below normal in the southern half of New Jersey. Southern coastal areas of New Jersey are closer to normal.

Current (April 15) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that streamflows have responded to recent rainfall and are near or above normal in many areas. An area in northern New Jersey and the southeast quarter of Pennsylvania is experiencing flows that are below normal. Groundwater levels are near normal in most locations with some below normal levels in the northeast quarter of Pennsylvania.

The snow season has ended. If any additional snow falls, it will melt quickly.

The weather outlook through late April calls for near or above normal rainfall. Temperatures are expected to average out to be near normal during this period, though several days of above and even below normal temperatures can be expected. The Climate Prediction Center's 30 day outlook for April and the 90 day outlook for April through June calls for near average precipitation and above average temperatures.

The outlook for water resources is fair to good. There have been occasional periods of dry weather since the beginning of the year that have only been offset by brief periods of about "normal" precipitation. As a result, south-central New York along with much of Pennsylvania are showing signs of growing dryness and this is where the water resources outlook is fair. Green-up season has begun along with the increase in water that goes along with it. In the absence of more frequent rainfall, water resources are likely to become stressed in the upcoming weeks and months. The most recent rain event helped, but an increase in precipitation is needed to avoid further deterioration in water resource conditions. Signs continue to point to a return to significant precipitation in the upcoming couple of weeks, though this is still not a certainty.

In summary, the northern portion of the MARFC service area has sufficient to abundant water resources and water supplies. These water resources and supplies are likely to maintain current levels or increase slightly in the coming weeks and remain abundant with no water shortages expected, though this expectation is highly dependent on current rain expectations.

End.