May 24, 2013 - Rainfall has been scattered over the northern part of the MARFC service area so far in May. Most areas have been within 1/2 inch or so of normal, though lesser amounts have fallen in portions of south-central New York as well as northern-most and east-central Pennsylvania. Rain in northern New Jersey has been more abundant with some areas running 1 to 2 1/2 inches above normal. Precipitation over the past 90 days is mostly 1 to 3 inches below average.

Current (May 24) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that streamflows are generally near or above normal in south-central New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. Groundwater levels are, on average, near or above normal except for northeast Pennsylvania. Here, groundwater levels are below normal.

The weather outlook through the first week of June calls for near or below normal rainfall. Temperatures are expected to be below normal for Memorial Day weekend but then warm to above or even much above normal. The Climate Prediction Center's 30 day outlook for June calls for near average precipitation and temperatures. The 90 day summer outlook for June through August calls for near average precipitation and above average temperatures.

The outlook for water resources is fair in south-central New York, northeast Pennsylvania, and northern New Jersey (despite the most recent rainfall here). The outlook is good elsewhere. Significant rainfall occurs from time to time leading to improvement in water resources. But, a consistently near or above average rainfall pattern has yet to firmly establish itself. So, periods of dry weather over the past 90 days means that longer term deficits still exist. With the typical increase in water usage during summer, below normal rainfall could stress water resources. This does not, for now, appear to be the case but will be monitored.

In summary, the northern portion of the MARFC service area has sufficient water resources and water supplies. These water resources and supplies are likely to maintain current levels or begin their typical slow long term summer decrease in the coming weeks, but remain sufficient, with no water shortages expected in the next several weeks. Near or below normal rainfall in the short term is expected to have little affect on water resources and supplies unless this were to continue into a longer term trend.