June 20, 2013 - So far within the northern half of the MARFC service area June precipitation has been average to much above average. Total precipitation so far this month has been in the 2-9 inch range. Noteworthy is how wet it has been this month across southeastern NY, eastern PA and all of NJ, where 4-9 inches of rain has fallen. When looking at precipitation departure trends for the past 90 days, western and central portions of the northern ops area (which includes NY, PA and NJ) have seen average to somewhat below average precipitation, while eastern portions have seen above average precipitation. A similar pattern exists for year-to-date precipitation: somewhat below average across the west and central portions, somewhat above average across the east (mainly in New Jersey).

Current (June 20) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that streamflows range from near normal to much above normal across the northern half of the MARFC service area. Flows are highest across southeastern NY, eastern PA and NJ.

The weather outlook for the next couple of weeks calls for above normal temperatures and above normal rainfall. The NWS Climate Prediction Center's 30-day outlook for July indicates that rainfall and temperatures both have nearly equal chances of being below normal, normal, or above normal. The same holds true for the Center's 90-day outlook for July through September - equal chances of below normal, normal or above normal rainfall and temperatures.

Hurricane season has begun and rains from a tropical system can bring significant rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic Region. Currently in the Atlantic Basin which includes the Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Storm Barry is moving into Mexico and is not expected to have any impact on the MARFC region. Otherwise, the tropics are currently quiet in the Atlantic Basin.

The outlook for water resources is fair to good across most of the northern half of the MARFC service area. Water resources and supplies remain sufficient. No areas of drought currently exist, nor do any water supply shortages, and neither are currently anticipated to develop during the next several weeks. Long-range weather outlooks are not indicative at this time of a long spell of dry weather, in spite of what appears to be a fairly dry period during about the next week or so.