July 5, 2013 - "Wet wet wet" best describes the weather over the past month or so. June ended with rain about average (plus or minus an inch or so) in north-central Pennsylvania and parts of south-central New York. Much of the rest of south-central New York and Pennsylvania had rain amounts from 1 to 3 inches above average. But for far eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey, rain was 4 to nearly 8 inches above average. On top of that, 1/2 to 2 inches of rain has already fallen in the first few days of July (except for south-central Pennsylvania where only a tenth or two has fallen so far). Clearly, we are, at least for now, in a wet weather pattern. As for temperatures in June, they were warm but not extreme averaging 1/2 to 2 degrees above normal. Rainfall over the past 90 days has been typical (plus or minus an inch or two) for most of south-central New York and Pennsylvania. But, some sections of New York north and east of Binghamton along with far eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey have seen 3 to 8 inches more rainfall than what is typical.

Current (July 5) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that streamflows are much above normal in the northern half of the MARFC service area except in south-central Pennsylvania. Here, flows are about normal. Groundwater levels are above or much above normal.

The weather outlook through the middle of July calls for a continuation of above normal rainfall. Temperatures are expected to be near or above normal. The NWS Climate Prediction Center's 30-day outlook for July indicates that rainfall should be near or possibly above average and temperatures are expected to be near normal. The 90-day outlook for July through September calls for equal chances of below normal, normal or above normal rainfall and temperatures.

Hurricane season has begun and rains from a tropical system can bring significant rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic Region. The tropics are currently quiet in the Atlantic Ocean but a tropical disturbance is in the Gulf of Mexico but is currently unlikely to affect the Mid Atlantic Region.

The outlook for water resources continues to improve and is now very good across the northern half of the MARFC service area. Water resources and supplies are abundant or even excessive at times. Neither drought nor any water supply shortages are anticipated to develop during the next several weeks. Long-range weather outlooks are not indicative of a long spell of dry weather. Average or wetter than average weather appears to be likely during the next week or so.