September 9, 2013 - Most areas have not yet had much rain so far in September. But, a few scattered areas in south-central New York and in New Jersey have seen 1 to 2 1/2 inches of rain. Overall, most areas have been dry. Rainfall over the past 90 days is continuing to show a dry area in central Pennsylvania. Here, rainfall has been 1 to more than 3 1/2 inches below normal. Most of south-central New York, eastern-most Pennsylvania and New Jersey are running 4 to 10 inches above average. In between, rainfall is near normal. Year to date departures show longer term dryness in central and east-central Pennsylvania with precipitation running 5 to 9 inches below average. Long term wetness is indicated in southeast Pennsylvania and the southern half of New Jersey where precipitation amounts are 4 to 8 inches above average.

Current (September 9) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that streamflows range from near to above normal in south-central New York, New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania east of the Susquehanna River. In central Pennsylvania west of the Susquehanna River, streamflows are near or below normal. Groundwater levels are near or above normal for most locations. But gages are trending toward below normal levels in parts of central Pennsylvania.

The weather outlook for the next couple of weeks calls for below normal rainfall. Temperatures are expected to be near or above normal. The NWS Climate Prediction Center's 30-day outlook for September calls for near or above normal rain along with near average temperatures. The 90 day outlook for September through November calls for near normal precipitation and near or above normal temperatures.

Hurricane season is in its' most active period and tropical systems can bring significant rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic Region. Though there are some systems in the Atlantic Ocean basin, rain from a tropical system is not expected in the near term.

The outlook for water resources is very good across the northern half of the MARFC service area except for central Pennsylvania. Here, the outlook has been lowered from very good to good due to recent dry weather and low prospects for significant rain in the near term. As a whole, water resources and supplies are sufficient or abundant. Long range weather outlooks are suggesting that a potential period of dry weather is upon us, so areas of central Pennsylvania will be watched for the chance of potential drought in the upcoming weeks and beyond.

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