September 16, 2013 - With the exception of south-central New York (where 2 to 4 inches of rain has fallen), below average rainfall has been the rule so far in September. Light amounts of 1/2 to 1 1/2 inches have been common. Rainfall over the past 90 days is continuing to show an expanding dry area in central Pennsylvania. Here, rainfall has been 2 to 5 inches below normal. Most of south-central New York, eastern-most Pennsylvania and New Jersey are running 2 to 7 inches above average. In between, rainfall is near normal.

Current (September 16) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that streamflows range from near to above normal in south-central New York, New Jersey, and most of Pennsylvania. Some areas in central Pennsylvania are below normal. Groundwater levels are near or above normal for most locations. But gages are trending toward below normal levels in parts of central Pennsylvania.

The weather outlook for the rest of September calls for near or below normal rainfall. Temperatures are expected to be near or above normal. The NWS Climate Prediction Center's 30-day outlook for September calls for near or above normal rain along with near average temperatures. The 90 day outlook for September through November calls for near normal precipitation and near or above normal temperatures.

Hurricane season is in its' most active period and tropical systems can bring significant rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic Region. Though there are some systems in the Atlantic Ocean basin, rain from a tropical system is not expected in the near term.

The outlook for water resources is very good across the northern half of the MARFC service area except for central Pennsylvania. Here, the outlook is good. Though rainfall has below average for the past couple of months, this dryness has yet to have a significant affect on water resources and supplies. Further dry weather could, however, change this. As a whole, water resources and supplies are sufficient or abundant. Long range weather outlooks are showing a region-wide likelihood for dry weather. Areas of central Pennsylvania will be watched for the chance of potential drought in the upcoming weeks and beyond.

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