September 24, 2013 - With the exception of south-central New York (where 3 to 5 1/2 inches of rain has fallen), mostly below average rainfall of 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 inches has fallen so far in September. This continues a lengthening period of dry weather over the past month or two for the northern portion of the MARFC service area. Rainfall over the past 90 days is showing a dry area in central Pennsylvania with rainfall running 1 1/2 to 4 inches below normal. Most of south-central New York, eastern-most Pennsylvania and New Jersey are running 2 to 7 inches above average. In between these two areas as well as northern and coastal New Jersey, rainfall is near normal.

Current (September 24) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that streamflows range from near to above normal in south-central New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. Groundwater levels are near or above normal for most locations with some below normal levels in parts of central Pennsylvania.

The weather outlook into the first week of October calls for below normal rainfall. There are some indications that a storm could bring rain late in the weekend or early next week. If this does not happen, then rainfall will likely be much below normal. Temperatures are expected to be near or above normal. The NWS Climate Prediction Center's 30-day outlook for October and the 90 day outlook for October through December calls for near average precipitation and temperatures.

The tropics are currently quiet in the Atlantic Ocean basin. Rain from a tropical system is not expected in the near term.

The outlook for water resources is very good across the northern half of the MARFC service area except for central Pennsylvania. Here, the outlook is good. Though rainfall has been below average for the past couple of months, this dryness has yet to have a significant impact on water resources and supplies. As we move deeper into autumn and the strength of the sun continues to lessen, drought development will be slow to happen, but could still occur as long term dryness continues. As a whole, water resources and supplies are sufficient or abundant. Long range weather outlooks are showing a region-wide likelihood for dry weather to continue. Areas of central Pennsylvania will be watched for the chance of potential drought in the upcoming weeks and beyond. The remainder of the region may have its' outlook downgraded if the absence of precipitation continues.