April 28, 2014 - April has been fairly dry to date with precipitation running 1/2 to 1 1/2 inches below average for Pennsylvania, southern New York, and New Jersey. This will likely change before the month ends as we'll see in the weather outlook below. Over the past 90 days, southern New York and much of Pennsylvania is running 1 to nearly 2 1/2 inches below average precipitation-wise. Southeast Pennsylvania as well as New Jersey have had normal to an inch or two above normal precipitation.

Current (April 28) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that streamflows are near normal except for some areas of southern New York and central Pennsylvania where flows are below normal. Groundwater levels are, on average, near or above normal.

The weather outlook for the next couple of weeks calls for above average rainfall which is likely to be much above in the short term. Temperatures are expected to be below normal. The NWS Climate Prediction Center's 30-day outlook for May calls for near normal precipitation and temperatures. The 90 day outlook for May through July calls for near average precipitation and near or above average temperatures.

The outlook for water resources is good or very good across all of southern New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. Despite long term dryness in some areas, an expectation of significant rain in the short term should ensure that water resources and supplies will remain abundant for at least several weeks. An overall long term lack of precipitation for much of central and even east-central Pennsylvania could become an area of concern should long term dry weather return.