Potential Exists for Major Rain Event Early in the Outlook Period.

October 26, 2012 - October has had variable amounts of rainfall so far. The wettest areas have been from northern Virginia northeast into north-central Maryland where rainfall has been 1/2 to over 1 inch above normal. The remainder of the southern portion of the MARFC service area has been mostly 1/2 to 1 inch below normal rainfall. Over the past 90 days dating back to late July, rainfall has been mostly average plus or minus 1 to 3 inches. Portions of the lower Delmarva Peninsula and Tidewater Region of Virginia are 3 to as much as 8 inches above normal for rainfall.

Current (October 26) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that streamflows are around or below normal. Groundwater levels are generally running near normal with a few spots below normal.

The US Drought Monitor, as of October 23, indicates that a moderate to severe drought is underway in the central Delmarva Peninsula and Chesapeake Bay region. Moderate drought conditions exist in the Appomattox River Basin in central Virginia. The state of Virginia has posted a drought watch for the Appomattox River Basin. Drought declarations, if any, are declared by individual states.

The weather outlook through the first week of November calls for much above average precipitation in the short term due to the likely passage of tropical system "Sandy." Afterwards, near normal precipitation is expected. Temperatures should be near or below normal. The Climate Prediction Center's 30 day outlook for November as well as the 90 day outlook for November, 2012 through January, 2013 calls for near average precipitation and temperatures.

The outlook for water resources for the next several weeks looks good to very good. In fact, current expectations indicate that precipitation early in the period is likely to be excessive in many, or possibly even all, parts of Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and the eastern panhandle of West Virginia. Heading deeper into the autumn season, this scenario would likely ensure abundant water resources for the next several months. The overall trend of near or above normal precipitation is expected to continue allowing water supplies and resources to continue to increase over the next several weeks and months, even after any short term heavy rains.

In summary, the southern portion of the MARFC service area has sufficient to increasingly abundant water resources and water supplies. These water resources are likely to increase in the upcoming weeks and months. With near or above normal rainfall expected to continue, water resources should remain sufficient or abundant and no water shortages are expected at least through the rest of 2012.