July 5, 2013 - "Wet wet wet" best describes the weather over the past month or so. June ended with rain amounts of 3 to nearly 8 inches above normal for most of the southern portion of the MARFC service area. The drier areas (with rainfall close to or just above normal) were across western Maryland and the eastern panhandle of West Virginia. On top of that, 1/2 to 2 inches of rain has already fallen in the first few days of July for most areas. Again, western Maryland and the eastern panhandle of West Virginia have been drier with only a tenth or two. The other extreme is west-central Virginia where 2 to 4 inches has fallen. Temperatures in June were warm but not extreme averaging 1 to 3 degrees above normal. For the past 90 days, western and central Maryland, the eastern panhandle of West Virginia, and northern Virginia have seen near normal rainfall, while areas further south and east have seen 3 to more than 10 inches above normal rainfall.

Current (July 5) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that streamflows are above or much above normal in the Delmarva Peninsula and most of Virginia. In northern Virginia, the rest of Maryland, and the eastern panhandle of West Virginia, flows are about normal. Groundwater levels are generally near or above normal.

The weather outlook through the middle of July calls for near or above normal rainfall. Temperatures are expected to be near or above normal as well. The NWS Climate Prediction Center's 30-day outlook for July shows equal chances of temperatures being below normal, normal, or above normal, while above average rainfall is expected. The 90-day outlook for July through September indicates essentially equal chances of both temperatures and precipitation being below normal, normal, or above normal.

Hurricane season has begun and rains from a tropical system can bring significant rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic Region. The tropics are currently quiet in the Atlantic Ocean but a tropical disturbance is in the Gulf of Mexico but is currently unlikely to affect the Mid Atlantic Region.

The outlook for water resources across the southern half of the MARFC service area is good to very good. No areas of drought or water supply shortages currently exist, and none are expected to form during the next few weeks. At this time a sustained dry weather pattern is not being indicated and, in fact, a wet period continues to be likely.