September 24, 2013 - The southern portion of the MARFC service area has not had much rainfall for the month of September with only an inch or two having fallen so far. Over the past 90 days, central Maryland, parts of northern Virginia, and parts of the eastern panhandle of West Virginia are running 1 to 3 inches below average rainfall. The lower Delmarva Peninsula is also 1 to 3 inches below average for rain. Elsewhere, rainfall has been normal to 5 inches above normal.

Current (September 24) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that streamflows are near normal except for the region from the District of Columbia to Baltimore. Here, some flows are below normal. Groundwater levels are generally near normal with both above and below levels scattered throughout the area.

The weather outlook through the first week of October calls for below normal rainfall with near or above normal temperatures. There are some indications that a storm could bring rain late in the weekend or early next week. If this does not happen, then rainfall will likely be much below normal. The NWS Climate Prediction Center's 30-day outlook for October and the 90 day outlook for October through December calls for near average precipitation and temperatures.

The tropics are currently quiet in the Atlantic Ocean Basin. Rain from a tropical system is not expected in the near term.

The outlook for water resources across the southern half of the MARFC service area is very good except for central Maryland and around DC. Here, rainfall has not been abundant in the past couple of months and the outlook is good. As we move deeper into autumn and the strength of the sun continues to lessen, drought development will be slow to happen, but could still occur as long term dryness continues. As a whole, water resources and supplies are sufficient or abundant. Long range weather outlooks are showing a region-wide likelihood for dry weather to continue. Areas mentioned above will be watched for the chance of potential drought in the upcoming weeks and beyond. The remainder of the region may have its' outlook downgraded if the absence of precipitation continues. Overall, water resources and supplies are sufficient to abundant.