October 1, 2013 - The southern portion of the MARFC service area had little rainfall in September with amounts of only an inch or two. This was 1 1/2 to 4 inches, or 50 to more than 80 percent, below average. Temperatures in September were near normal plus or minus up to around a degree. Over the past 90 days, central and eastern Maryland as well as parts of northern and eastern Virginia are running 3 to nearly 5 inches below average rainfall. Elsewhere, rainfall has been normal plus or minus an inch or 2.

Current (October 1) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that streamflows are near normal except in central Maryland and around the District of Columbia. Here, flows are below normal. Groundwater levels are generally near normal with below normal levels scattered throughout the area.

The weather outlook through the middle of October calls for below normal rainfall to begin the period but then near or above normal rainfall. Temperatures are expected to be above normal. The NWS Climate Prediction Center's 30-day outlook for October calls for near average precipitation and above average temperatures. The 90 day outlook for October through December calls for near average precipitation and temperatures.

There are a couple of weak systems in the Atlantic Ocean Basin. But, rain from a tropical system is not expected in the near term.

The outlook for water resources across the southern half of the MARFC service area is very good except for central Maryland and around DC. Here, rainfall has not been abundant in the past couple of months and the outlook is good. Rainfall has been below average for a lengthening period and this dryness has begun to affect, though still minimally, water resources and supplies. As we move deeper into autumn and the strength of the sun continues to lessen, drought development will be slow to happen, but could still occur if long term dryness continues. The outlook will be downgraded if this dryness continues. Oppositely, a wet period in the next couple of weeks or months would quickly replenish any effects that are beginning to appear. As a whole, water resources and supplies are sufficient or abundant. Long range weather outlooks are showing a good chance for wet weather, so we'll see how water supplies and resources respond should this rain materialize.