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Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center

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Water Resources Outlook - Northern MARFC Area
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Map of the Northern Water Resources Outlook Region

October 18, 2014 - After a dry September, October has been quite wet to date with 2 to 4 1/2 inches of rain for most areas. This puts these areas 1/2 to 2 1/2 inches above normal. South-central New York has only had about 1 1/2 inches of rain so far leaving this area a little below normal. Temperatures have been quite warm averaging mostly 3 to 4 degrees above average. Over the past 90 days, rainfall for much of southern New York and Pennsylvania has been running about average plus or minus an inch or two. The Catskill Region of New York, easternmost Pennsylvania, and the northern half of New Jersey have been 4 to 6 inches below. Meanwhile, much of the southern half of New Jersey has been running 1 to 4 inches above normal.

Current (October 18) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that streamflows are running near normal to much above normal. This is a result of the recent heavy rain event and levels are expected to slowly drop. Groundwater levels are below or much below normal in northeast Pennsylvania and the Catskill Region of New York. Elsewhere, groundwater levels are near or above normal.

The weather outlook for the rest of October calls for near or above normal precipitation in the beginning of the period but then below average precipitation for the last week or so of October. Temperatures are expected to begin the period below average but slowly moderate to above average by the end of the month. The NWS Climate Prediction Center's 30-day outlook for November as well as the 90 day outlook for November, 2014 through January, 2015 calls for near average precipitation and above average temperatures.

A significant mid-month storm brought quite a bit of rain to the Mid-Atlantic helping to offset the growing deficits that had been developing as a result of a fairly long stretch of dry weather. Though this rain certainly helped, continued wet weather is needed to improve the outlook for water resources and supplies. For now, it appears that we are in a brief wet period and are likely to return to dry weather, at least for awhile. So, the outlook for water resources and water supplies remains unchanged for now and is "good" across most of southern New York, most of Pennsylvania, and the southern half of New Jersey. In the Catskill Region of New York, northeast Pennsylvania, and the northern half of New Jersey, water resources and supplies remain fair. As we get deeper into Autumn with cooler temperatures and a weakening sun, further degradation will be slow to occur and improvement may occur quite quickly if wet weather were to continue.


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