September 18, 2014 - September has been quite dry to date with only
3/4 to 1 1/2 inches of rainfall through the middle of the month. This
is largely 1/2 to 2 inches below average. Temperatures are running
normal to about a degree above normal. Recent cool weather has mostly
offset the warm temperatures from the first week to ten days of the
month. Over the past 90 days, rainfall for much of the northern
portion of the MARFC service area has been running about average plus
or minus an inch or two. There has been a dry area in eastern
Pennsylvania along with the northern half of New Jersey where rainfall
has been 2 1/2 to 5 inches below average. Any unusual wet areas are
small in areal coverage.
Current (September 18) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological
Survey shows that streamflows are running near normal for most areas.
But, some levels are running below normal in the Catskill Region of
New York, in northeastern Pennsylvania, and in the northern half of
New Jersey. Groundwater levels are near or above normal.
The weather outlook for the rest of September calls for below
normal rainfall along with near or below normal temperatures. The NWS
Climate Prediction Center's 30-day outlook for October as well as the
90 day outlook for October through December (the remainder of calendar
year 2014) calls for near average precipitation and above average
We have passed the peak of hurricane season, which has been fairly
quiet to date. Tropical weather systems can bring flooding rains to
the Mid-Atlantic Region. But for now, no tropical system is
threatening the Mid-Atlantic Region.
The outlook for water resources and water supplies is good or very
good across most of southern New York, most of Pennsylvania, and the
southern half of New Jersey. In the Catskill Region of New York,
northeast Pennsylvania, and the northern half of New Jersey, water
resources and supplies have degraded to fair. This is due to an
increasingly persistent trend of below average rainfall in this area.
The rainfall expectations (likely to be below average for most areas)
for the coming weeks suggest that little or no improvement can be
expected in the near term. If anything, a further degradation is