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Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center
 
 

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Water Resources Outlook - Northern MARFC Area
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Map of the Northern Water Resources Outlook Region

January 29, 2015 January precipitation has been averaging near to an inch below normal for southern New York, most of Pennsylvania, and even northwest New Jersey. In southeast Pennsylvania and much of New Jersey, precipitation has been an inch or two above. Temperatures have been cold running 2 to 4 degrees below normal. Over the past 90 days, precipitation for southern New York and most of Pennsylvania has been 2 to 3 1/2 inches below average. Southeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey are about normal plus or minus an inch or two. And the rest of New Jersey has had 3 to 6 inches above normal precipitation.

Snowpack has been slowly increasing and varies quite a bit. Snow depth amounts of mostly 4 to 10 inches are reported on the ground in southern New York, much of Pennsylvania, and the northern half of New Jersey. Generally a couple of inches or less is on the ground in southeast Pennsylvania and the southern half of New Jersey. The water equivalent in this snow, or the amount of water that will be released when it melts, ranges from ½ to 1 ½ inches. This amount of snow will have only minimal hydrologic significance. However, if accompanied by a significant warm-up and rainfall, the melting snow could add to possible river rises. In addition to the snow, ice covers many streams and rivers and is likely to increase in the coming days.

Current (January 29) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that streamflows are running below or much below normal in southern New York and Pennsylvania. Flows are normal in the northern half of New Jersey and above normal in the southern half of New Jersey. Groundwater levels are near or below normal in southern New York and Pennsylvania but are mostly above normal in New Jersey.

The weather outlook for the next couple of weeks calls for near or below average precipitation. Temperatures are expected to be below or even much below average. The NWS Climate Prediction Center's 30 day outlook for February as well as the 90 day outlook for February through April calls for near average precipitation and temperatures.

The outlook for water resources and water supplies is "good" across southern New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. Sufficient precipitation coupled with the time of year has offset longer term dry weather. However, longer term precipitation deficiencies are becoming evident for much of southern New York and Pennsylvania. This area will be monitored in upcoming weeks should precipitation remain low.

End.

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Page Author: Jason Nolan
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Page last modified: October 29, 2014 10:58 PM
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