October 18, 2014 - After a dry September, October has been quite
wet to date with 2 to 4 1/2 inches of rain for most areas. This puts
these areas 1/2 to 2 1/2 inches above normal. South-central New York
has only had about 1 1/2 inches of rain so far leaving this area a
little below normal. Temperatures have been quite warm averaging
mostly 3 to 4 degrees above average. Over the past 90 days, rainfall
for much of southern New York and Pennsylvania has been running about
average plus or minus an inch or two. The Catskill Region of New
York, easternmost Pennsylvania, and the northern half of New Jersey
have been 4 to 6 inches below. Meanwhile, much of the southern half
of New Jersey has been running 1 to 4 inches above normal.
Current (October 18) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological
Survey shows that streamflows are running near normal to much above
normal. This is a result of the recent heavy rain event and levels
are expected to slowly drop. Groundwater levels are below or much
below normal in northeast Pennsylvania and the Catskill Region of New
York. Elsewhere, groundwater levels are near or above normal.
The weather outlook for the rest of October calls for near or above
normal precipitation in the beginning of the period but then below
average precipitation for the last week or so of October.
Temperatures are expected to begin the period below average but slowly
moderate to above average by the end of the month. The NWS Climate
Prediction Center's 30-day outlook for November as well as the 90 day
outlook for November, 2014 through January, 2015 calls for near
average precipitation and above average temperatures.
A significant mid-month storm brought quite a bit of rain to the
Mid-Atlantic helping to offset the growing deficits that had been
developing as a result of a fairly long stretch of dry weather.
Though this rain certainly helped, continued wet weather is needed to
improve the outlook for water resources and supplies. For now, it
appears that we are in a brief wet period and are likely to return to
dry weather, at least for awhile. So, the outlook for water resources
and water supplies remains unchanged for now and is "good" across most
of southern New York, most of Pennsylvania, and the southern half of
New Jersey. In the Catskill Region of New York, northeast
Pennsylvania, and the northern half of New Jersey, water resources and
supplies remain fair. As we get deeper into Autumn with cooler
temperatures and a weakening sun, further degradation will be slow to
occur and improvement may occur quite quickly if wet weather were to