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Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center

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Water Resources Outlook - Northern MARFC Area
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Map of the Northern Water Resources Outlook Region

September 18, 2014 - September has been quite dry to date with only 3/4 to 1 1/2 inches of rainfall through the middle of the month. This is largely 1/2 to 2 inches below average. Temperatures are running normal to about a degree above normal. Recent cool weather has mostly offset the warm temperatures from the first week to ten days of the month. Over the past 90 days, rainfall for much of the northern portion of the MARFC service area has been running about average plus or minus an inch or two. There has been a dry area in eastern Pennsylvania along with the northern half of New Jersey where rainfall has been 2 1/2 to 5 inches below average. Any unusual wet areas are small in areal coverage.

Current (September 18) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that streamflows are running near normal for most areas. But, some levels are running below normal in the Catskill Region of New York, in northeastern Pennsylvania, and in the northern half of New Jersey. Groundwater levels are near or above normal.

The weather outlook for the rest of September calls for below normal rainfall along with near or below normal temperatures. The NWS Climate Prediction Center's 30-day outlook for October as well as the 90 day outlook for October through December (the remainder of calendar year 2014) calls for near average precipitation and above average temperatures.

We have passed the peak of hurricane season, which has been fairly quiet to date. Tropical weather systems can bring flooding rains to the Mid-Atlantic Region. But for now, no tropical system is threatening the Mid-Atlantic Region.

The outlook for water resources and water supplies is good or very good across most of southern New York, most of Pennsylvania, and the southern half of New Jersey. In the Catskill Region of New York, northeast Pennsylvania, and the northern half of New Jersey, water resources and supplies have degraded to fair. This is due to an increasingly persistent trend of below average rainfall in this area. The rainfall expectations (likely to be below average for most areas) for the coming weeks suggest that little or no improvement can be expected in the near term. If anything, a further degradation is possible.


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