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Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center
 
 

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Water Resources Outlook - Northern MARFC Area
Go to Southern MARFC Area Go to WRO Archive
Map of the Northern Water Resources Outlook Region

October 26, 2014 - October has been quite wet for most areas of the northern portion of the MARFC service area with 3 to over 5 inches of rain. This puts these areas 1/2 to 2 inches above normal. South-central New York and north-central Pennsylvania have only had about 2 to 3 inches of rain so far leaving this area near or a bit below normal. Temperatures have been quite warm averaging mostly 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 degrees above average. Over the past 90 days, rainfall for much of southern New York and Pennsylvania has been running about average plus or minus an inch or two. The Catskill Region of New York, easternmost Pennsylvania, and the northern half of New Jersey have been 4 to 6 inches below. Meanwhile, much of the southern half of New Jersey has been running 1 to 4 inches above.

Current (October 26) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that streamflows are running near or below normal. Groundwater levels are below or much below normal in northeast Pennsylvania and the Catskill Region of New York. Elsewhere, groundwater levels are near or above normal.

The weather outlook through the first week or so of November calls for near or below normal precipitation. Temperatures are expected to begin the period above average but cool to below average by the beginning of November. The NWS Climate Prediction Center's 30-day outlook for November as well as the 90 day outlook for November, 2014 through January, 2015 calls for near average precipitation and above average temperatures.

A significant mid-month storm brought quite a bit of rain to the Mid-Atlantic helping to offset the growing deficits that had been developing as a result of a fairly long stretch of dry weather. Though this rain certainly helped, continued wet weather is needed to improve the outlook for water resources and supplies. For now, this does not appear to be likely. So, the outlook for water resources and water supplies remains "good" across most of southern New York, most of Pennsylvania, and the southern half of New Jersey. In the Catskill Region of New York, eastern Pennsylvania, and the northern half of New Jersey, water resources and supplies are fair. As we get deeper into Autumn with cooler temperatures and a weakening sun, further degradation will be slow to occur and improvement may occur quite quickly if wet weather were to occur.

End.

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Page Author: Jason Nolan
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Page last modified: October 29, 2014 10:58 PM
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