October 26, 2014 - October has been quite wet for most areas of the
northern portion of the MARFC service area with 3 to over 5 inches of
rain. This puts these areas 1/2 to 2 inches above normal.
South-central New York and north-central Pennsylvania have only had
about 2 to 3 inches of rain so far leaving this area near or a bit
below normal. Temperatures have been quite warm averaging mostly 2
1/2 to 3 1/2 degrees above average. Over the past 90 days, rainfall
for much of southern New York and Pennsylvania has been running about
average plus or minus an inch or two. The Catskill Region of New
York, easternmost Pennsylvania, and the northern half of New Jersey
have been 4 to 6 inches below. Meanwhile, much of the southern half
of New Jersey has been running 1 to 4 inches above.
Current (October 26) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological
Survey shows that streamflows are running near or below normal.
Groundwater levels are below or much below normal in northeast
Pennsylvania and the Catskill Region of New York. Elsewhere,
groundwater levels are near or above normal.
The weather outlook through the first week or so of November calls
for near or below normal precipitation. Temperatures are expected to
begin the period above average but cool to below average by the
beginning of November. The NWS Climate Prediction Center's 30-day
outlook for November as well as the 90 day outlook for November, 2014
through January, 2015 calls for near average precipitation and above
A significant mid-month storm brought quite a bit of rain to the
Mid-Atlantic helping to offset the growing deficits that had been
developing as a result of a fairly long stretch of dry weather.
Though this rain certainly helped, continued wet weather is needed to
improve the outlook for water resources and supplies. For now, this
does not appear to be likely. So, the outlook for water resources and
water supplies remains "good" across most of southern New York, most
of Pennsylvania, and the southern half of New Jersey. In the Catskill
Region of New York, eastern Pennsylvania, and the northern half of New
Jersey, water resources and supplies are fair. As we get deeper into
Autumn with cooler temperatures and a weakening sun, further
degradation will be slow to occur and improvement may occur quite
quickly if wet weather were to occur.