NOVEMBER 19, 2009 - November has been quite dry so far with very little measurable precipitation. The only exception is in extreme southern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Here, rainfall has added up to 1/2 to 3/4 inch. Southern New Jersey has seen 1 to 2 inches of rain. This represents much below average precipitation for the month so far. However, as of this writing, a system is bringing some rain to the northern portions of the MARFC service area. So, these rainfall amounts will be increasing. In the longer term, the 60 and 90 day precipitation departures indicate that most of southern New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey have had near average precipitation plus or minus 10 to 20 percent. There have been scattered wetter areas, mainly in southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey, where precipitation has been as much as 125 percent of average. For the year, precipitation has been near average plus or minus 10 or 20 percent.

The minimal amount of rainfall thus far in November is beginning to have an effect on streamflow, though not significant. Streamflows are no longer above to much above normal. Instead, current streamflow (November 19) across the northern half of the MARFC region from U.S. Geological Survey streamflow data indicates that Pennsylvania, southern New York and New Jersey have streamflow values that are near normal. Ground water levels as provided by the U.S. Geological Survey for November 19 also show that monitoring wells are at generally normal levels. As long term rainfall along with recent streamflow and groundwater indicate, abundant water can be found in the waterways of the northern portion of the MARFC service area.

Short term weather patterns indicate that near average, or even slightly above average, precipitation is expected over the next several days. This wetter pattern of above average precipitation is expected to last for the remainder of the month and possibly even into early December. The longer term 30 and 90 day outlooks issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center for December (30 day outlook), as well as the period spanning December 2009 through February 2010 (90 day outlook), indicate that precipitation and temperatures are both expected to average about normal for the northern half of the MARFC region. As indicated by the current dry period, there could be brief wet or dry periods. But, the overall pattern does not indicate long periods of wet or dry weather. Also, as the next several weeks progress and as we move into December, the frequency of snowfall will increase. This will add a new perspective to how precipitation will affect water supply.

So in summary, a dry November (at least through November 19) is expected to become wetter as the month begins to wind down. Plentiful water resources exist, no drought conditions exist, and no water shortages are currently anticipated for at least the next several months. Plentiful water resources are expected to continue for the foreseeable future.

Please send information about any "dead links" or any other comments specific to the WRO to William.Marosi@noaa.gov.