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Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center

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Water Resources Outlook - Northern MARFC Area
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Map of the Northern Water Resources Outlook Region

May 15, 2015 Through mid-month, May has been quite dry with 1/4 inch or less of rain in the Catskill Region of New York, the eastern third of Pennsylvania, and in New Jersey. Elsewhere in southern New York and in central Pennsylvania, 1/2 to 1 inch has fallen, but this is still well below normal. May has been quite warm with temperatures running 6 to 9 degrees above normal. Over the past 90 days, precipitation has been about 1 to 4 1/2 inches below average in southern New York and Pennsylvania. Precipitation has been 2 to over 5 inches below in most of New Jersey. The only exception has been southern New Jersey where precipitation has been near normal.

Current (May 15) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that streamflows are below or much below normal. Groundwater levels are near or below normal.

The weather outlook for the next couple of weeks calls for near or above average rainfall. Temperatures are expected to be near or above normal. The NWS Climate Prediction Center's 30 day outlook for May calls for near average rainfall and above normal temperatures. The 90 day outlook for May through July calls for near average precipitation and temperatures.

The outlook for water resources and water supplies is good to fair across southern New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. Rainfall frequency and amounts have decreased considerably over the past several weeks creating noticeable deficits. This lack of rainfall is having an effect, most notably on streamflows, but in other areas as well, such as topsoil and groundwater. Further effects may appear as we move further into the warm season and if rainfall remains below normal. Longer term precipitation deficits are also growing during this near term lack of rainfall. Rainfall for the next week or two is expected to be about average or even above. However, further degrading of this outlook is quite possible in the event that this rainfall does not materialize.


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Page last modified: October 29, 2014 10:58 PM
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