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NOVEMBER 19, 2009 - A major mid month rain event affected the southern region of the MARFC service area with several inches of rain in the southern two thirds of Virginia and the lower half of the Delmarva Peninsula. This storm came on the heals of an early November rain event in Virginia. Consequently, water supply has improved in this region. For November (through November 19), rainfall in the southern two thirds of Virginia and the lower half of the Delmarva Peninsula has been much above normal at two to four times the average. In the Tidewater region of Virginia, rain amounts have been four to six times the average. Elsewhere, rainfall has been much less abundant. The northern third of Virginia has seen average to 150 percent of average rainfall. Much of the eastern panhandle of West Virginia, Maryland, and the northern parts of the Delmarva Peninsula have been 25 to 50 percent below average. Extreme western Maryland and adjacent parts of West Virginia have seen very little rainfall so far this month. Long term trends continue to show that the wettest areas are in the east while the more average, typical amounts of rainfall have been in the west. The longer term pattern over the past 60 and 90 days shows above average rainfall on the Delmarva Peninsula and around the Chesapeake Bay where amounts have been 150 to 200 percent of average. The remainder of Maryland, the eastern panhandle of West Virginia, and Virginia outside of the Tidewater region has seen rainfall amounts of about average plus or minus 10 or 20 percent, though short term departures in southern Virginia are higher. For the year to date, most areas have seen near average precipitation plus or minus 10 or 20 percent. The exception is around the Chesapeake Bay where precipitation amounts have been 125 to 135 percent of average. Current streamflow (November 19) across the southern half of the MARFC region from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that most of Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia have above to much above normal streamflows. This is a clear reflection of recent rains. Far western Maryland and the eastern panhandle of West Virginia have normal to even below normal streamflows for this time of year. From a water supply perspective, the eastern panhandle of West Virginia and far western Maryland are no longer experiencing drought conditions according the the U. S. Drought Monitor dated November 17. But, this region continues to be the driest and may need to be monitored for a return of drought like conditions in the coming months. The remainder of the southern portions of the MARFC service area have received abundant rainfall recently. So, there are currently no concerns about drought or water supply shortages developing in the near future. Short term weather patterns indicate that precipitation amounts are expected to be above average as we move through the remainder of the month and possibly into early December. Longer range outlooks issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center show that the 30 day outlook for December as well as the 90 day outlook covering December through Febuary, 2010 suggest that near normal precipitation can be expected. Temperatures, particularly in the early parts of 2010, should be below average. This expectation of above average rainfall should prevent drought conditions from returning to the eastern panhandle of West Virginia or far western Maryland. Nevertheless, this area will be watched. In summary, rainfall over the past several months across the southern half of the MARFC region has been abundant in most areas, especially in the east. But, rainfall has been somewhat lacking in some parts of the west, especially far western Maryland and the eastern panhandle of West Virginia. No water shortages are currently anticipated for the near future. In fact, a plentiful water supply exists for most areas. Please send information about any "dead links" or any other comments specific to the WRO to William.Marosi@noaa.gov.
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