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Water Resources Outlook - Southern MARFC Area
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Map of the Southern Water Resources Outlook Region

July 21, 2014 - The scattered nature of summer-time rainfall has been obvious so far in July with amounts ranging from as little as 1/2 inch to as much as 5 inches to date. Areas of northern Virginia and the central Delmarva Peninsula are running more than 2 inches above normal. On the dry side, central and western Virginia are 1 to 2 inches below. July temperatures have been about normal plus or minus a degree or so. Over the past 90 days, northeast and central Maryland, as well as northern and central Virginia is running 5 to 9 inches above normal for rainfall. Elsewhere, near average rain has fallen though parts of far western Virginia and the central Delmarva Peninsula are 2 to 4 inches below normal.

Current (July 21) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that streamflows are above normal in central Maryland and about normal elsewhere. Groundwater levels are near or above normal.

The weather outlook into early August calls for above normal rainfall. Temperatures are expected to be near normal early in the outlook but then expected to be below normal. The NWS Climate Prediction Center's 30-day outlook for August calls for near normal rainfall and above normal temperatures. The 90 day outlook for August through October calls for near average rainfall and near or above average temperatures.

Hurricane season has begun and tropical weather systems can bring flooding rains to the Mid-Atlantic Region. For now, the tropics are quiet.

The outlook for water resources and supplies is good or very good for Maryland, the eastern panhandle of West Virginia, Delaware, and Virginia. Recent rainfall in the central Delmarva Peninsula has helped to ease concerns of dryness that had been occurring in the past month or two, though a new area of extended dryness has now formed in central and western Virginia. It is common in the summer for some areas to get quite a bit of rain while nearby areas get very little. But over the longer term of weeks and months, just about all areas have been receiving sufficient rain to maintain good or very good water resources and supplies. Region-wide, the expectation of near or above average rainfall should ensure that water resources and supplies remain abundant for at least several more weeks. But, as mentioned above, much of central and western Virginia have been in a short term dry spell and this area is most susceptible to drought if these expectations of above average rain do not occur.


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