September 18, 2014 - September rainfall has been an inch or less
for most areas, which is an inch or two below average. The exception
is the southern half of the Delmarva Peninsula and southeast Virginia
where 2 1/2 to over 8 inches has fallen to date. Temperatures have
been running normal to 4 degrees above normal. Over the past 90 days,
central and western Virginia, the eastern panhandle of West Virginia,
and the central Chesapeake Bay Region are 2 1/2 to 5 inches below
normal. On the wetter side of things, far western Maryland and
southeast Virginia are 2 to 4 inches above normal. Elsewhere, near
average rain has fallen.
Current (September 18) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological
Survey shows that streamflows are normal or below normal. Groundwater
levels are near or above normal.
The weather outlook for the rest of September calls for near or
below average rainfall and near or below average temperatures. The
NWS Climate Prediction Center's 30-day outlook for October along with
the 90 day outlook for October through December calls for near average
precipitation and above average temperatures.
We have passed the peak of hurricane season, which has been fairly
quiet to date. Tropical weather systems can bring flooding rains to
the Mid-Atlantic Region. But for now, no tropical system is
threatening the Mid-Atlantic Region.
The outlook for water resources and supplies is good for Maryland,
the eastern panhandle of West Virginia, Delaware, and much of
Virginia. The outlook is fair for central and western Virginia due to
an extended period of dryness. Region-wide, the expectation of near
or below average rainfall suggests that little or no improvement can
be expected in the near term. If anything, a degradation in
conditions is possible.