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Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center

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Water Resources Outlook - Southern MARFC Area
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Map of the Southern Water Resources Outlook Region

August 16, 2014 - Rainfall in August has been very heavy for some, but very little for others. Much of central Maryland, eastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula is running 1 1/2 to 3 1/2 inches above normal rainfall. On the flip side, much of west-central Virginia has only had about an inch of rain so far in August. Temperatures have been quite cool running 1 to more than 5 degrees below normal so far. Over the past 90 days, dating back to the middle of May, most areas have had near average rainfall plus or minus 1 to 3 inches. Much of central and western Virginia is 3 to 6 inches below normal.

Current (August 16) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that streamflows are normal to above normal. Groundwater levels are near or above normal.

The weather outlook through most of the rest of August calls for above normal rainfall. Temperatures are expected to be near or below normal to start the period but then become near or above normal. The NWS Climate Prediction Center's 30-day outlook for August calls for near normal rainfall and temperatures. The 90 day outlook for August through October calls for near average rainfall and near or above average temperatures.

Hurricane season is underway and tropical weather systems can bring flooding rains to the Mid-Atlantic Region. For now, no tropical system is threatening the Mid-Atlantic Region.

The outlook for water resources and supplies is good for Maryland, the eastern panhandle of West Virginia, Delaware, and much of Virginia. The outlook is fair for central and western Virginia due to an extended period of dryness. It is common in the summer for some areas to get quite a bit of rain while nearby areas get very little. But over the longer term of weeks and months, most areas have been receiving sufficient rain to maintain good water resources and supplies. The exception, as mentioned above, is in central and western Virginia. Region-wide, the expectation of above average rainfall should maintain or improve water resources and supplies over the next couple of weeks. But, should this rain not materialize, then conditions in central and western Virginia will likely deteriorate further.


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