Carolina Sky Watcher

Carolina Sky Watcher

'Climate Outlooks' from page 7

The second figure shows the temperature outlook for December, January, and February.  An area of above normal temperatures can be seen extending from California to the gulf coast of Texas.  A bull's eye of above normal temperatures is situated where the borders of Arizona, California, and Nevada meet.  For all other areas of the nation, including eastern North Carolina, temperature levels near the climatic normals are expected this winter.

by Seth Nagle

It's not too often that Eastern North Carolina sees frozen wintry precipitation; however, when we do, forecasting it can sometimes be a challenge.  The reasons for this are many.  For example, just a few tenths of a degree can determine whether we're going to get rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain.   

National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters use a variety of scientific tools and methods to predict winter storms.  Among them include surface observations, radar data, upper air observations from weather balloons, climatology, and computer weather forecast models.  Each of these tools are important, however, computer weather forecast models are the most commonly used tool for the prediction of all types of weather, including winter storms.

Computer models are projections of the condition of the atmosphere at a given time in the future. The models use mathematical equations to try to predict a number of factors at several levels or heights. The fields calculated include, but are not limited to, temperature, moisture, wind, and precipitation.  Input for the models is taken from the data collected by weather balloons and surface observations.  Models predict the state of the atmosphere anywhere from a few hours to several months in the future.   Most computer models used by forecasters are generated

'Winter Weather' continued from previous page

advance. 

To help residents and businesses in Eastern North Carolina prepare for winter weather, the National Weather Service in Newport, North Carolina has declared the week of December 3^rd as Winter Weather Awareness Week for Eastern North Carolina.  Each day, from December 3^rd through December 7^th, the National Weather Service in Newport will issue Public Information Statements discussing how winter weather impacts Eastern North Carolina.  These statements will be broadcast over NOAA Weather Radio and will also be posted on the Internet. 

Also, be sure to visit our web site  to keep up with the latest weather information.  The address is www.nws.noaa.gov/er/mhx.

by Jeff Orrock

See 'Technique' on following page