An Introduction to Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

This presentation was prepared from a teletraining module produced by Rick Koehler of the NWS' Training Center in conjunction with UCAR's COMET.

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Table of contents

  1. An Introduction to
    Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
  2. Outline
  3. Introduction
  4. Users of NWS Hydrology Products
  5. Hydrologic Models Overview
  6. Model Error and Forecast Uncertainty
  7. Definitions
  8. Definitions (cont.)
  9. Definitions (cont.)
  10. Time-series Overview
  11. Definitions
  12. Streamflow Example
  13. Definitions (cont.)
  14. Ensemble Example
  15. Traditional Analysis
  16. Traditional Analysis (cont.)
  17. Traditional Analysis (cont.)
  18. Traditional Analysis (cont.)
  19. Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
  20. ESP Technique
  1. ESP Technique (cont.)
  2. ESP Technique (cont.)
  3. ESP Input
  4. Simulation Types
  5. Simulation Types (cont.)
  6. Simulation Types (cont.)
  7. NWS River Forecast System
  8. Forecast Conditions
  9. Soil Moisture
  10. Verification
  11. Verification (cont.)
  12. ESP Products
  13. Products – Trace Plots
  14. Products – Expected Value Plot
  15. Products – Probability Plot
  16. Products – Exceedance Information
  17. Probabilistic Flood Mapping
  18. Summary
  19. References
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