ZCZC CRWESGTIR CES TTAA00 KTIR DDHHMM WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER, WILMINGTON OH 205 PM EDT Thursday, August 28, 2008 THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES AVERAGE MEAN DAILY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK FOR PLANNING PURPOSES IN THE OHIO VALLEY. SEPTEMBER OUTLOOK... STREAMFLOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH BELOW NORMAL FORECAST IN THE NORTHWEST BASIN AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEASTERN BASIN. WITH ENSO NEUTRAL AND NO OTHER LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC INDICATORS FORECAST TO SHIFT, NO LARGE SCALE CHANGES IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM AUGUST ARE PREDICTED. HOWEVER, THE NUMBER OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS PEAK IN SEPTEMBER AS DOES THE CHANCE THAT THE REMNANTS OF ONE COULD WORK ITS WAY UP INTO THE AREA. OBVIOUSLY THAT WOULD ACT TO RAISE STREAMFLOWS FOR A GIVEN AREA OF THE BASIN WERE ONE ABLE TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTHWARD. AUGUST REVIEW... AUGUST CERTAINLY WAS A DRYING MONTH FOR THE OHIO RIVER BASIN. THE AREA GENERALLY SAW BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL AND SUBSEQUENT LOWERING STREAMFLOWS AND A REDUCTION IN SOIL MOISTURE FROM JULY. THE RECENT RAINFALL FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FAY HELPED TO BRING SOME STREAMFLOWS IN THE EASTERN BASIN BACK TO NORMAL, BUT RAINFALL DEFICITS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN BROUGHT STREAMFLOWS TO LOWER LEVELS THAN JULY. ..................................................................... AUGUST RAINFALL ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AUGUST WAS A DRIER THAN AVERAGE MONTH FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE OHIO RIVER FORECAST BASIN. IN FACT, LARGE AREAS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN INDIANA...NORTHERN OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WERE MUCH DRIER THAN AVERAGE, WITH RAINFALL 5 TO 20% OF A NORMAL AUGUST. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA ONLY GOT 30 TO 60% OF ITS NORMAL AUGUST RAINFALL. ONLY RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO RECEIVED NORMAL RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON 30-DAY TO 1-YEAR RAINFALL CAN BE FOUND ON THE NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE/OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WEBPAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/OHRFC/DROUGHT.HTML ..................................................................... AUGUST SOIL MOISTURE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS SOIL MOISTURE IS AVERAGE IN MOST OF KENTUCKY...TENNESSEE...OHIO... PENNSYLVANIA...AND WEST VIRGINIA. DESPITE THE DRY AUGUST, SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL FOR INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. SOIL MOISTURE TABLE PERCENTILE MUCH WETTER THAN AVERAGE >90 WETTER THAN AVERAGE 70-90 AVERAGE 31-69 BELOW AVERAGE 10-30 MUCH BELOW AVERAGE <10 SOIL MOISTURE DATA IN THE TOP 5 FEET IS COURTESY OF THE NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE/CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER. THIS AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/SOILMST/W.SHTML ..................................................................... AUGUST STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS SOME STREAMS IN THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER BASIN JUST RECEIVED A BUMP UP TO NORMAL STREAMFLOW DUE TO THE RECENT PASSAGE OF THE REMNANTS OF FAY. OTHERWISE, THE MAJORITY OF STREAMFLOW IN THE OHIO RIVER BASIN IS EITHER AT NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL. AREAS IN INDIANA TEND TO BE THE CLOSEST TO ABOVE NORMAL STREAMFLOW WHILE MOST AREAS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE ARE STILL SITTING BELOW NORMAL. STREAMFLOW TABLE PERCENTILE MUCH WETTER THAN AVERAGE >90 WETTER THAN AVERAGE 76-90 AVERAGE 25-75 DRIER THAN AVERAGE 10-24 MUCH DRIER THAN AVERAGE <10 DAILY AND MONTHLY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW ARE OBTAINED FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY. THIS DATA AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE USGS ON THE INTERNET AT: HTTP://WATERMONITOR.GOV ..................................................................... ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR SEPTEMBER TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION SIGN RAINFALL ARCTIC NEUTRAL NORMAL NORTH ATLANTIC NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE NORMAL PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN NEUTRAL NORMAL ENSO NEUTRAL NORMAL TELECONNECTION INFORMATION IS COURTESY OF THE NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE/CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER. THIS AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV ..................................................................... WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK AND DISCUSSION FOR SEPTEMBER STREAMFLOWS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER BASIN ARE LOOKING TO BE GENERALLY NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL IN SEPTEMBER. THERE ARE LITTLE TO NO ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION INDICATORS PREDICTING A DRASTIC SHIFT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM AUGUST. THE WATERS OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC CONTINUE TO BE NORMAL, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE WATERS MAY BE WARMING AND CPC INDICATES THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A DEVELOPING EL NINO FOR LATE FALL AND WINTER. IN THE MEANTIME, WITH NO LARGE-SCALE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FORECAST, THE MOST LIKELY SOURCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH SEPTEMBER WILL LIKELY BE FROM FORMER TROPICAL SYSTEMS MOVING UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ANY SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL SYSTEM (OF WHICH ARE AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK IN SEPTEMBER) ENTERING THE AREA COULD ACT TO DRIVE UP STREAMFLOWS TO NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR AN AREA OF THE OHIO RIVER FORECAST BASIN. THAT WOULD BE THE KEY FEATURE TO WATCH THROUGH THE MONTH. THIS STREAMFLOW FORECAST IS BASED ON THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS...THE LATEST ATMOSPHERIC MODEL FORECASTS...HISTORIC TRENDS...AND CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS. ..................................................................... SEPTEMBER BASIN EXPECTED STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK <10=MUCH BELOW 10-24=BELOW 25-75=AVERAGE 75-90=ABOVE >90=MUCH ABOVE BASIN BASIN NAME STREAMFLOW PERCENTILE FORECAST AGU UPPER ALLEGHENY RIVER 25-75 AGL LOWER ALLEGHENY RIVER 25-75 MNU UPPER MONONGAHELA RIVER 25-75 MNL LOWER MONONGAHELA RIVER 25-75 BVR BEAVER RIVER 25-75 MKU UPPER MUSKINGUM RIVER 25-75 MKL LOWER MUSKINGUM RIVER 25-75 HOC HOCKING RIVER 25-75 LKH LITTLE KANAWHA RIVER 25-75 KAN KANAWHA RIVER 10-25 SAY BIG SANDY RIVER 25-75 SCI SCIOTO RIVER 25-75 MIM MIAMI RIVER 25-75 LIK LICKING RIVER 25-75 KTY KENTUCKY RIVER 25-75 GRN GREEN RIVER 25-75 EFW EAST FORK WHITE RIVER 25-75 WHT WHITE RIVER 25-75 WBU UPPER WABASH RIVER 25-75 WBL LOWER WABASH RIVER 25-75 LWA LITTLE WABASH RIVER 25-75 GTL GREAT LAKES DRAINAGE 25-75 MAU MAUMEE RIVER 25-75 CMU UPPER CUMBERLAND RIVER 10-25 CML LOWER CUMBERLAND RIVER 25-75 OHW OHIO RIVER WHEELING 25-75 OHP OHIO RIVER PARKERSBURG 25-75 OHH OHIO RIVER HUNTINGTON 25-75 OHC OHIO RIVER CINCINNATI 25-75 OHL OHIO RIVER LOUISVILLE 25-75 OHS OHIO RIVER SMITHLAND 25-75 ....................................................................... VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT www.erh.noaa.gov/ohrfc/WRO.shtml IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A 60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE $$ Thomas Rench NNNN