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The Microburst |
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January 2004 |
Volume 3, Number 2 |
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Winter Edition 2003-2004 Inside the Winter Edition of “The Microburst”… NWS On the Road… Ham Radio Corner… Guest Column… FEATURE SECTION Seasonal Outlook Winter Storms Past Measuring Snow Winter Weather Winter Reporting 10 Questions From the MIC Parting Shots Pic of the Issue For
more on Skywarn Recognition Day, check out this web site… http://hamradio.noaa.gov. For more on Ham
Radio University 2004, check out this web site… http://www.hudson.arrl.org/nli/hru2004.htm
National
Climatic Data Center (NCDC) Homepage… NWS
Office of Climate, Water and Weather Services Homepage…
Northeast
River Forecast Center Homepage… http://www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc/
NWS
Upton Winter Weather Homepage… http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/winterweather.html
NWS
Upton Spotter Reporting… http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/Skywarn/cold_criteria.html/
NWS
Upton Spotter Reporting… http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/Skywarn/warm_criteria.html
Some Useful Internet Links… NOAA
Homepage NWS
Homepage http://www.weather.gov NWS
Brochures Page http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/brochures.shtml SkywarnPrepared
Information http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/Skywarn/prepared.html Upton
Skywarn Page http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/skywarn.html
National Weather Service/NOAA 175 Brookhaven Ave. Building NWS-1 Upton, NY 11973 Scott
Reynolds KC2JCB NWS
Upton NY Senior
Forecaster SKYWARN
Program Leader Editor,
“Microburst” Gary
Conte NWS
Upton NY Warning Coordination Meteorologist Bob
Giglio N2JJM Regional
Ham Radio SKYWARN Coordinator Phone: (631)
924-0517 (forecast line) x412 for the SKYWARN Info and Registration Voice Mail Box Fax: (631)
924-0519 (Spotter reports) (Spotter Info changes) Check us Out On the Web! http://www.weather.gov
or www.erh.noaa.gov/okx (Click on the local area
to get to a forecast or the OKX homepage) “The
Microburst” is the official newsletter of the Tri-State SKYWARN Program,
and is published up to four times per year by the NWS Office in Upton
NY. All editions are published to the Upton web
page at http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx . |
Winter Arrives Early… With the change of the calendar to winter, one expects the weather to turn colder, and eventually for the snow to fly. For the second year in a row, December’s first week brought a snowstorm to the Tri-State Region. This storm was actually a two-part system, with the first system arriving around midday Friday the 5th. The first system dropped 4 to 8 inches of snow near the coast, with only a couple of inches inland. The second wave started early Saturday morning, dropping another 6 to 12 inches Saturday. The NWS received nearly 500 spotter email reports, and received many, many other reports via phone and SKYWARN Nets. Thanks to everyone for the reports...they were very much appreciated. Some questions arose regarding some snowfall measurements from the event. As a result of this, we have included a piece on “the art of snowfall measurement” in this issue for your information and future use in the Feature Section. Since winter is just getting started, there will probably be plenty of opportunities to use the information in that article. SKYWARN Recognition Day 2003 SKYWARN Recognition Day 2003 was just one of the many area events significantly impacted by the early season snowstorm. WX2OKX was all set to run for the entire 24 hours for the first time in 3 years. Walter KA2RGI and Bob KC2HMD came in during the first wave of snow Friday to set up. However, that was the last time we saw them over the weekend (or any other operators for that matter) as the snows kept our operators at home. Four local nets did operate as scheduled, so we at least have a small number of contacts to report. I (Scott KC2JCB) did partake in 2 nets Friday night, and 2 more Saturday evening. 40 contacts were made during the nets, with snowfall measurements being the main observations passed along. I would like to thank the following people and amateur radio clubs for their help in putting together these nets and for all of their help throughout the year for SKYWARN Operations... Neil KC2KY, Emil KD1F and the Radio Central Amateur Radio Club for use of the W2RC/R 145.150 repeater in Port Jefferson NY. (Friday night net.) Jeff KB4JKL, Andy WB2FXN and the Suffolk Police Amateur Radio Club for the use of the K2SPD/R repeater in Farmingville NY, and for setting up the link to the LI_NY Conference Server on Echolink. (Friday night net.) Joe N2LF, John K2CIB, Alan N2CYC and the Rockland Repeater Association for setting up the Saturday net on the K2CIB/R repeater in Orangetown NY. Glenn N1HAW, Jim N1GPB, Brian N1LFE and the Shore Point Amateur Radio Club for use of the N1LFE/R repeater in West Haven CT, and for setting up the Echolink connection to the New England Conference Server for Saturday’s net. The last 3 repeaters (K2SPD/R, K2CIB/R, N1LFE/R) are our primary SKYWARN Amateur Radio repeaters in their respective counties. Our thanks to the clubs, coordinators and the repeater trustees for all that they do to support SKYWARN. And, we are looking into ways to integrate the W2RC/R repeater into our operations as well. NWS Upton “On the Road” The 94th Annual New York National Boat Show... Saturday December 27th through Sunday January 4th, at the Jacob Javitts Convention Center in Manhattan. We’ll be in Hall D, Booth number 1026, complete with all kinds of general and marine weather information. Ham Radio University 2004...Sunday January 18, beginning at 800 AM, at the East Woods School in Oyster Bay, NY. The NWS will have an information table in the exhibition area, complete with the usual assortment of weather and SKYWARN information. HRU 2004 is a day to learn about everything from satellite communications, low power operating using radios as small as a tuna tin, and the latest in emergency communications. There will also be a VE session for those who would like to take an FCC exam to get their ham license, or to upgrade their license. There will be a Special Event Station set up and operational on HF. There will be special forums geared to the non-ham as well as the experienced ham radio operator. The focus will be "hands on" with many demonstrations. I (Scott KC2JCB) will be one of the forum speakers during the afternoon, with a talk on NWS Weather Information and its use in Event and Emergency Planning and Response. Hope to see some of you there. Ham Radio Corner A question came up recently about the area SKYWARN Nets and how to access them. Here’s how the local nets are set up right now... Currently, our SKYWARN Nets are under the direction of the Coordinator (or Deputy) Coordinator for a given County. The frequencies, offsets and PLs for each county’s repeaters are listed on the NWS Upton SKYWARN web site (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/Skywarn/Skywarn.html). It is the responsibility of the Coordinator, Deputy Coordinator, or other designated Net Control Station to bring up a net, obtain reports and pass the information on to the NWS. In most cases, this occurs when the NWS activates SKYWARN (either via a Watch or Warning issuance), or via prior coordination between NWS and the Coordinators. However, those are not the only SKYWARN nets that operate. Some amateur radio clubs have established their own SKYWARN nets, and pass any information along to the County nets, or direct to the NWS. We at the NWS appreciate any SKYWARN reports that we receive, whether they come via the County nets, local nets, email, phone, fax, or other sources. As we upgrade our amateur radio station at the NWS (station WX2OKX), we anticipate being able to run more “wide-area” nets during severe weather events. Those upgrades are currently scheduled to begin in the spring. We also encourage our local coordinator teams to conduct regular SKYWARN Training or Weather Nets. There are currently at least 3 that meet weekly. The Bergen-Passaic SKYWARN Training Net is held on Monday nights at 10 pm on the W2PQG/R repeater (146.700 mHZ, PL 141.3, -600 kHz offset). The New Haven-Middlesex Weather Net is held on Thursday nights at 730 pm, on the N1LFE/R repeater (147.505 mHz, PL 77.0, -1 mHz offset). The New London County Weather Net meets each Wednesday at 800 pm. On the first Wednesday of the month, they meet on the W1NLC/R repeater (146.970, PL 156.7, -600 kHz offset). For all other Wednesdays, the net meets on the W1AAA/R repeater (147.060, 156.7 PL, +600 kHz offset). A new monthly SKYWARN Training Net is starting up in Rockland County on the K2CIB/R repeater (147.165 mHz, PL 114.8, +600 kHz offset). Their first Net will be on Wednesday January 14th at 800 pm. For the hams out there, why not check into one of these, even if you are outside of the counties listed? It’s a good way to keep up with some of the SKYWARN and weather-related issues of the day, and to be better prepared for those severe and winter weather events when they do arise. December 5th Was a Strange Day Contributed
by Mike Adams WA2MWT, Bergen County NJ SKYWARN Coordinator, Mindful of the National Weather Service’s prediction for the weekend of December 5th-7th, I nevertheless took out my lawn mower and let the gas burn through it while I ran it over the lawn and I raked up the last leaves in my yard. Both activities seemed like typical summer and fall exercises, except for the fact that it was 25 degrees out. Around noontime, I put all of my gardening utensils away and pulled out two snow shovels. I also dragged out a 40-pound bag of de-icer and taped my snow- measuring yardstick to a fence post. At around 100 pm, it started snowing lightly. I was too busy (or lazy) to place my snowboards into position. By 600 pm, the roads were very slippery and I responded to an ambulance call for an automobile into a telephone pole. The car struck the pole sideways, at the passenger door, and the driver was trapped in the vehicle. The Rescue Squad and Fire Department also responded and extricated the driver from her vehicle. That would be the only automobile accident with injuries all weekend. At 900 PM, we convened a Bergen-Passaic SKYWARN Spotter Net and took snow accumulation reports from a dozen amateur radio operators who are also trained SKYWARN spotters. The general amount was around 4”, with the snow falling at a steady but light rate. The readings were sent to the National Weather Service, in Upton, NY. At 1000 pm, I called in the “ground truth observations” to WCBS, WNBC, WABC and Fox-5. At 1130 pm, I was dozing off in my chair when I heard one of the TV meteorologists say, “Thanks to Mike Adams, Ramsey OEM Coordinator, for sending in the following snowfall accumulations...much appreciated!” That was pretty nice, I thought, but when I went to get up, I wondered why every muscle in my body ached. I had not even started the frustrating task of shoveling snow during a blizzard. I hadn’t had to push anyone’s car out of a drift. I didn’t even have to lift the patient out of her car, onto the stretcher at the automobile accident. Oh, that’s right, I remembered, I had cut my lawn and raked my leaves that morning. It was a very, very strange day. FEATURE SECTION … WINTER WEATHER … Seasonal Outlook ... The Northeastern United States can expect equal chances of above-, below- or near-normal temperatures and precipitation during the three-month period of January through March 2004. However, within the period, variable and changing jet stream patterns are likely to continue. This will bring periods of storminess and swings of temperature extremes, just like what we’ve seen in the Northeast thus far in December. So, keep those snow shovels, snow blowers and ice melt handy...just in case. Here are some of the normals and extremes for each of the next three months for New York City (Central Park).
A Winter Storm Retrospective… Many times during the winter, and usually just before a storm hits, there will be references to past storms. This section takes a look back a just a few of the “big ones” to effect the Northeast in the past decade or so. “The Perfect Storm” (October 1991) The Halloween Storm continued to deepen while drifting to the southeast, then southwest, and eventually south. By the 31st, the low was located off of the Delmarva coast and was weakening. But, by that time, the damage was being done. The peak intensity of the storm was on the 30th, with maximum sustained winds of 60 knots (69 mph) and a central pressure of 972 mb. The highest reported seas were as high as 39 feet, but much higher seas are likely to have occurred. Coastal flooding was the biggest hazard from this storm along the coast, despite some southern New England land-based stations such as Chatham MA reporting wind gusts to 78 mph. Boston reported tides over 14 feet above mean low level water (MLLW), or about 1 foot below level seen with the “Blizzard of ‘78.” Coastal flooding, beach erosion and treacherous surf conditions extended up and down the Atlantic coast from Canada to Florida and Puerto Rico. “The Storm of the Century” (March 1993)Storm of the Century. All of these names were used to describe the snowstorm that direct impacts on HALF of the continental United States. This storm took a slightly “less traditional” track compared to what might be considered to be the track of typical “Nor’easters” that stay just offshore. This storm actually remained 50 to 100 miles inland for most of its’ trek up the Eastern Seaboard. But it was the size and scope of the storm that will be remembered for years to come. The “Blizzard of ‘96" (January 1996)
All of the classic signatures of a blizzard were there...heavy snow, strong winds, very cold temperatures and wind chill values. The effects of this storm were felt for days to come in the region, as the region gradually dug out from the storm. The Ice Storm and Floods of January 1998
The main story, of course, was the devastating ice storm to the north of the front. Significant icing occurred across northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine, and southern Quebec province of Canada. Ice accumulations of over 3 inches were reported in some areas. In Quebec, ice accumulation caused damage over 1000 power transmission towers and 30,000 utility poles. The “President’s Day Storm” of 200325 years earlier, it was the Blizzard of ‘78. 5 years later, it was the President’s Day
Storm of 1983. Big February
snowstorms are not unusual...this was no exception. Storm
information courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center (Asheville NC), NWS Office of
Climate, Water and Weather Services (Silver Spring MD), NWS Burlington
VT, and the Northeast River Forecast Center (Taunton MA). Snow Measuring Might Involve Contributed
by Tim Morrin, Cooperative Program Manager, NWS Upton NY
When all is said and done, and the storm has “done its thing,” the amount of snow for the event is largely up to the NWS cooperative network and severe weather spotters. So, the accuracy of the measurements is of utmost importance. Let’s take a brief look at some very important fundamentals when it comes to snowfall measuring. The total snowfall for any particular snow event is NOT the depth of the snow when the storm has wound down. It IS the total summation of snowfall measurements in increments throughout the storm. For example, a snowstorm may start dropping snow at noon. By 600 pm, the snow depth is 3 inches. By 700 pm, the wind kicks up from the north and blows and drifts the snow downwind to the south in your yard. Those 3 inches accumulated by 6 pm are now deposited randomly across your observation area. Other factors that could complicate snow measuring are melting and compression. The best way to minimize errors is to observe snow depth in increments. The increments of time can vary from observer to observer and from event to event. One example of an acceptable time increment is 6 hourly. Let’s say that the snow starts at noon. At 6pm, an AVERAGE snow depth is observed. An average is obtained by taking several readings around your observation area and come up with a representative average. When the storm winds down, a total for the storm is obtained after totaling ALL the readings up. The preferred snow observation interval is every 6
hours. SNOW BOARDS:The most recommended way to measure snow is the snowboard. The board is usually 3 feet by 3 feet, and is about one-half inch thick. The board should be painted white to reflect solar radiation. The board’s placement is key with this type of technique. Place the board in a location where there is limited blowing and drifting. During a snow event, measurements are made on the board, written down and the board is swept clean. After the event, the total of ALL readings is used for the event total. For more on snowfall measurements, please refer to this
web site at NWS Headquarters... http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/coop/Publications/snowguid.htm Winter Weather Preparedness
Before The Storm:
Have the following available at home, just in case
of a loss of power, heat, or telephone... Flashlights (and extra batteries). Battery-powered NOAA Weather Radio. Extra food, water, medicine and baby items. (DON’T FORGET ABOUT PETS!) First-aid supplies. Sufficient heating fuel. Emergency heat source. Fire extinguisher. For your vehicle...make sure you have the following... A full tank of gas. Shovel, windshield scraper, sand or cat litter for traction, rope. First-aid kit, knife. Extra clothing, blankets. Food, container for water, waterproof matches. When Caught In A Winter Storm:
Find shelter. (Try to stay dry and cover all exposed body parts.) If no shelter is available...build a wind break for protection from the wind and build a fire for heat and to attract attention. Melt snow for drinking water. (Eating snow will lower your body temperature.)
Stay inside. You can become disoriented very quickly in wind-driven snow and cold. Run the engine about 10 minutes per hour for heat, and keep the dome light on at night while running the engine. Keep a window open for fresh air and to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. Make sure the exhaust pipe is not blocked. Tie a colored (red if available) cloth to a door or antenna. Raise the hood after the snow stops to indicate that you need help. Keep your blood circulating and keep warm by moving around from time to time (arms, legs, fingers, toes). At home... Stay inside. Be sure to use fire safeguards and proper ventilation when using alternate heat sources (i.e. fireplace, wood stove, space heater). Close off unneeded rooms, cover windows at night. Eat and drink. Food provides the body with energy for producing it’s own heat. Avoid dehydration. Wear layers of loose-fitting, lightweight clothing. Remove layers to prevent overheating,
perspiration and subsequent chill. AVOID OVEREXERTION !!! Most of this
winter weather information courtesy of “Winter Storms: The Deceptive
Killers,” Winter Spotter Reporting Criteria... HIGHEST PRIORITY (important even if SKYWARN hasn’t been activated):
Damaging wind gusts of 58 mph or higher, whether or not accompanied by a thunderstorm. (If you are unsure of the speed, report any downed trees or power lines, or structural damage to homes, e.g. slates off roof, antenna downed.) Flooding of streams and rivers onto roadways, homes or businesses. Urban flooding significant enough to make roadways or underpasses impassable. Two inches of rain within a twelve hour period. One inch of rain in an hour in urban areas. Heavy accumulation of ice which downs trees or power lines. Ice jams on rivers or streams which produce flooding.
Freezing rain or sleet occurring when none is forecast. A thunderstorm in progress when none is forecast. Presence of rain when only frozen precipitation is forecast (sleet, snow, and/or freezing rain). Rain or snowmelt which causes minor roadway flooding or flooding of streams. Blowing or drifting snow which closes roadways.
When snow accumulates 3 inches (the NWS issues an advisory for 4 inches). When snow accumulates 5 inches (the NWS issues a warning for 6 inches). When snow accumulates 1 inch per hour. Storm Total Snowfall. “10 Questions ...”
1. Define the term “blizzard.” (Hint: Multiple parts to this answer.) 2. What is Central Park’s official “normal” seasonal snowfall? 3. How much ice accretion needs to be forecast for the NWS to issue a Winter Storm Warning for Freezing Rain in our area? 4. Name 3 non-snow hazards that “Nor’easters” can bring to our | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The National Weather Service (NWS) conducts outreach visits to a variety
of groups and locations.
The long-range prognosis below is courtesy of NOAA’s Climate Prediction
Center in Camp Springs, MD.
An extratropical cyclone formed along a cold front off of the Atlantic
coast on 28 October, and rapidly deepened.
This well-forecast storm was talked about days in advance.
Another
well forecast storm to effect the Tri-State Region and the Northeastern
U.S. arrived on Sunday January 7th, and dumped 18 to 30 inches
of snow in about 24 hours.
This devastating storm did not have a significant impact on the Tri-State
Region, but it does show other types of damage possible from winter
storms.
The bulk of the snow in the Tri-State Region from this storm fell on
Monday the 17th.