SUMMER ANALOGS FOR 2006
IN SPITE OF A COOL START TO MAY, MAY 2006 WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL IN PHILADELPHIA. GOING BACK TO 1872, THERE WERE 17 INSTANCES IN WHICH BOTH APRIL AND MAY WERE WARMER THAN THE LONG TERM NORMAL (IN THE UPPER THIRD OF ALL APRILS AND MAYS). BELOW ARE WHAT OCCURRED IN PHILADELPHIA DURING THE ENSUING SUMMERS. WE DID CROSS REFERENCE ENSO STATES AND REMOVED THE TWO THAT WERE TRENDING TOWARD LA NINA CONDITIONS DURING THE SUMMER. THE CURRENT ENSO STATE IS NEUTRAL. THE SUB SURFACE WATER IS WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. WE ARE NOT ENSO EXPERTS, BUT THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE A LA NINA FROM RE-EMERGING. THE FIFTEEN REMAINING ANALOG YEARS ARE BELOW. IN THE FOR WHAT ITS WORTH DEPARTMENT 1933 HAS MIRRORED 2006 WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES CLOSER THAN ANY OF THE OTHER ANALOG YEARS SO FAR. IT ALSO WAS A VERY ACTIVE HURRICANE SEASON.


YEAR       JUNE AVG   JULY AVG  AUGUST AVG  SUMMER AVG  SUMMER PCPN 
1896          70.4       77.6       76.6        74.9        7.80
1922          73.6       75.5       73.0        74.0        9.54
1933          74.4       76.6       76.0        75.7       19.32
1941          71.6       76.1       73.1        73.6       15.62
1942          72.5       77.2       73.1        74.3       15.86
1959          72.2       75.9       76.5        74.9       16.49
1965          73.4       75.1       75.2        74.6       10.12
1977          68.6       77.8       76.2        74.2       15.50
1980          70.6       78.5       80.0        76.4        9.11
1985          68.8       75.4       74.1        72.8        9.36
1991          75.7       79.0       79.0        77.9       12.01
1993          74.4       81.4       78.9        78.2        8.68 
1995          74.3       81.5       79.9        78.6        4.69
2001          75.2       75.4       79.9        76.8        8.20
2004          71.8       76.3       75.0        74.4       16.65
 

AVG           72.5       77.3       76.4        75.4       11.93
1971-2000 NML 72.3       77.6       76.3        75.4       11.50

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