SUMMER ANALOGS FOR 2008
.CLIMATOLOGY...

ITS TIME AGAIN FOR OUR SUMMER ANALOG EXERCISE OF COMPARING APRIL AND MAY SPRING TEMPERATURES AND SEE WHAT ENSUING TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION OCCURRED IN PAST SUMMERS. THERE IS A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR THE SUMMER TO MIRROR APRIL AND BE CONTRARIAN TO MAY. THIS TENDENCY IS NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT HAS OCCURRED WITH RESPECT TO OCTOBER TEMPERATURES AND ENSUING WINTER TEMPERATURES.

BELOW ARE THE NIFTY EIGHT FOR THE UPCOMING SUMMER. RECENT SIMILAR OCCURRENCES POINT TOWARD AUGUST BEING THE WARMEST OF THE THREE SUMMER MONTHS. IN THIS SAMPLE AUGUST WAS THE WARMEST SUMMER MONTH FOUR TIMES, JULY THREE TIMES AND JUNE ONCE. OF THE THREE JUNE MONTHS THAT WERE WARMER THAN THE CURRENT 1971-2000 NORMAL, ALL OF THE SUMMERS WERE WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE WARM START IN JUNE WOULD MAKE IT EASIER AS ITS ONE-THIRD OF THE SUMMER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SIX OF THE EIGHT ANALOGS BELOW WERE WARMER THAN THE 136 YEAR HISTORICAL SUMMER MEDIAN IN PHILADELPHIA WHICH IS CURRENTLY 74.7 DEGREES. NONE OF THESE ANALOG YEARS HAD A MODERATE OR STRONG AN EL NINO PRESENT IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC THE PREVIOUS WINTER. THE CURRENT ENSO STATE IS RAPIDLY RISING TOWARD NEUTRALITY.

YEAR           ENSUING   ENSUING   ENSUING  AVG    ENSUING
               JUN       JUL       AUG      TEMP   PCPN


2005           74.8      78.9      79.6     77.8   10.19
1968           71.2      77.1      77.8     75.4    9.13
1960           70.6      73.3      74.5     72.8    9.42
1954           72.9      77.9      73.5     74.8    8.69

1952           74.7      80.1      75.2     76.7   11.95
1945           71.5      76.0      74.1     73.9   16.38
1938           71.3      77.2      78.4     75.6   20.68
1925           78.0      76.2      74.8     76.3    8.16


ANALOG AVG     73.1      77.1      76.0     75.4   11.83

1971-2000
NORMAL         72.3      77.6      76.3     75.4   11.50

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THIS SUMMER FOR THE PHL AND NEARBY AREAS IS FOR A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF IT BEING WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH A MEDIAN TEMPERATURE FOR PHILADELPHIA OF 76.1 DEGREES. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS EQUAL CHANCES OF IT BEING EITHER WETTER OR DRIER THAN NORMAL.


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