SUMMER ANALOGS FOR 2011
IN SPITE OF ANOTHER WET MARCH AND A LA NINA IN GENERAL LAST
WINTER, BOTH APRIL AND MAY WERE UNSEASONABLY WARM AGAIN FOR THE
THIRD CONSECUTIVE SPRING. SINCE 1872, THIS COMBINATION HAS
OCCURRED ONLY TWENTY TIMES, BUT NOW EIGHT TIMES SINCE 1990. BY
DEFINITION UNSEASONABLY COOL...NORMAL...UNSEASONABLY WARM MONTHS
ARE DIVIDED INTO THIRDS. THIS IS ONLY THE SECOND TIME THAT THIS
HAS HAPPENED COMING OUT OF A LA NINA WINTER. SO OUR ANALOG LIST
FOR THIS UPCOMING SUMMER IS EXTREMELY EXTREMELY SHORT.

THE FOLLOWING IS THE ONE AND ONLY PREVIOUS SUMMER WHICH FOLLOWED A
WARM SPRING EMERGING FROM LA NINA. PLEASE NOTE BECAUSE THIS SAMPLE
SIZE CAN NOT GET MUCH SMALLER THAN THIS, THE MARGIN FOR ERROR IS
GREATER THAN AVERAGE.


YEAR       JUNE AVG   JULY AVG  AUGUST AVG  SUMMER AVG  SUMMER PCPN
2001          75.2       75.4       79.9        76.8        8.00

AVG (OF ONE)  75.2       75.4       79.9        76.8        8.00
1971-2000 NML 72.3       77.6       76.3        75.4       11.50

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE SUMMER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF IT
IT BEING EITHER WARMER OR COOLER THAN NORMAL AND EITHER WETTER OR
DRIER THAN NORMAL.


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