SKYWARN NEWSLETTER
National Weather Service, NOAA
Pittsburgh, PA
Fall/Winter 2005
SEVERE WEATHER SEASON IN REVIEW
The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Pittsburgh issued approximately 610 short-fused warnings this season. Our average is around 600 a year for the past 8 years. We issued nearly 1100 last year (2004) and just a meager 270 in 2001. There was only one confirmed tornado (F1) which occurred in Brockway, Jefferson County, Pennsylvania.
SKYWARN DATES ARE CURRENTLY BEING SOLICITED
Letters to each county were recently sent. We asked each county to coordinate with ECs and other interested parties within the county on dates for SKWYARN classes. By mid to late January, we should have a schedule of classes posted on our web site. We anticipate there will be an above average number of classes this Spring because we were unable to offer SKYWARN classes last spring. Periodically check our web site for a class near you.
NOAA WEATHER RADIO (NWR)
We are currently anticipating the deployment of two additional NWRs in our County Warning Area (CWA). One transmitter is slated to go into Tuscarawas County, Ohio. The other is scheduled for Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. The timetable for deployment of these two transmitters is uncertain. However, we are rather certain they will be installed.
As a reminder, if you notice that one of our NWR transmitters is off the air, please contact us as soon as possible.
WE REALLY NEED YOUR WINTER WEATHER REPORTS
Winter weather reports are extremely important to us. We need your snowfall and freezing rain reports. These are important for several reasons: 1) The reports allow us to monitor the situation and they help to tell us if our forecasts are on track 2) If necessary, we can quickly adjust our forecast based on your reports 3) It gives us much needed verification data.
Feel free to call anytime with your winter reports.
E-SPOTTER IS HERE!
E-SPOTTER is an Internet based program which allows spotters to send in reports directly to the NWS office. We have activated the program for the NWS Pittsburgh office. If you are a trained SKYWARN spotter for the Pittsburgh NWS office, you can register at http://espotter.weather.gov/. You can then fill out either the Severe Weather Report Form or Winter Weather Report Form online and submit them to us in near real-time. If you remain logged into E-SPOTTER, once we acknowledge your report, you will get an indication that your report has been received on the screen. Please try to concentrate on those reporting items that we stress in the SKYWARN class (also contained in this newsletter). I will be talking more about E-SPOTTER at the SKYWARN classes this spring. When you send us a report via the Internet, we will get an alert at our main computers. However, we will still have to be logged into the Internet as well to read your report. However, there will be times when we cannot respond to your reports immediately because of workload or warning priorities. If you think your report is critical and very time sensitive, call us on the toll-free number. Please do not send an E-SPOTTER report via the Internet and then follow-up with a telephone call. This will actually double our workload.
PITTSBURGH SKYWARN LIST GROUP STILL GOING STRONG
If you're not already a member, consider subscribing to the Yahoo! Group SKYWARN Pittsburgh. It's a great way for
SKYWARNers in the Pittsburgh CWA to stay connected, share information, discuss the weather, share files and pictures, and more! To join, just visit http://www.yahoogroups.com/groups/skywarn_pittsburgh.
The creator of the group is Alan Stumpf (KB3DHC), and the moderators are Warning Coordination Meteorologist Rich Kane, and Josh Gelman. Join today!
http://www.yahoogroups.com/groups/skywarn_pittsburgh.
PENNSLYVANIA SKYWARNERS - ARE YOU INTERESTED IN THE FROST PROGRAM
NWS Pittsburgh SKYWARNers who live in Pennsylvania - we've received some information on the FROST program from the state climatologist. His letter follows:
FROST - a year-round experience in Pennsylvania!
The Pennsylvania
State Climate Office has initiated a new observation program known as FROST
(Frost, Rain, Optics, Snow and Thunder). This
program will be composed of a network of volunteers who will take daily
observations and document significant weather events. These observations will be
recorded through an easy-to-use web based entry form. We are specifically
looking for individuals not already in a weather
network.
Our goal is to gather the data from as many parts of Pennsylvania as we can
find, especially in lesser populated areas. This data will be collected,
assessed and displayed in an easily accessible format on the CoCoRaHS website
which can be found at http://www.cocorahs.org/.
Each
volunteer is requested to record data in the following categories: Daily Rain,
Intense Rain, Number of Thunder Claps, Daily Snow, Snowflake Shape, Optical
Effects and occurrences of frost. Volunteers receive online training with
instructions and an occasional training seminar offered in specified locations
in the state. Each volunteer will receive a packet with instructions on
instrument siting and measurement techniques. The FROST web site is at http://climate.met.psu.edu/data/frost/.
All new volunteers will find reporting and data entry procedures on the CoCoRaHS
website.
Since the program has just begun, the PA Climate Office is still in the process
of recruiting volunteers. Each volunteer will be providing valuable information
that will be used to expand our climatological record as well as verify daily
forecasts. We are expecting to award the first dozen volunteers from NWS
contacts a free rain gauge! So, please spread the word to help out your state
climate office. Email psc@mail.meteo.psu.edu today if you
have any questions.
Sincerely,
The PA State Climate
Office
NOAA ISSUES FINAL WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center has issued its final updates to the
2005-2006 Winter Outlook. For the period December through February, the outlook
continues to forecast a generally warmer than average winter across much of the
Locally, the Northeast region is forecasted to have equal chances of either cooler or warmer weather this winter. Edward O'Lenic, a lead outlook forecaster with the Climate Prediction Center stated Equal chances, for temperature or precipitation, means there are no strong or consistent climate signals for either above or below normal conditions during the season (NOAA News Online, November 2005).
However, this is not true for the entire
WEATHER SAFETY
While it is true that only a small percentage of
thunderstorms become severe, all thunderstorms produce lightning. Lightning
remains the number 2 direct weather related killer in the
To help you prepare for severe weather and other natural and manmade disasters, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) offers several independent study courses. These courses can be completed online at no cost, they can help you and your community prepare for both natural and manmade disasters, and you can even earn college credit for the courses! For more information, visit the FEMA Emergency Management Institute web site at http://www.training.fema.gov/EMIWeb/IS/.
Finally, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) offers an internet-based Hurricane Preparedness program through the Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology Education & Training (COMET). You can take this course online, also free of charge, at http://www.meted.ucar.edu/hurrican/chp/title.htm.
For more information regarding weather safety guidelines, refer to the Spotter Training Manual, or visit the National Weather Service Pittsburgh's web site at http://www.erh.noaa.gov/pbz.
WINTER WEATHER FORECASTING
Interested in learning more about meteorology and weather forecasting? Want to try to create your own forecast this winter? Learning to forecast is a very difficult task. It requires lots of time, practice, patience, and education. You must be familiar with how the atmosphere works, the plethora of information available, fundamental properties of thermodynamics, physics, mathematics, and much more! A lot of work goes into creating an accurate and reliable forecast.
However, if you are interested in some exposure into the realm of weather forecasting, here's your chance. First stop, the National Weather Services online weather school, Jetstream (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/jetstream/). Here you can learn about how the atmosphere works, fundamental meteorological concepts, the basics of weather forecasting, and you are supplied with many links to continue your weather education.
Next stop, the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). You can learn about the various weather forecasting models at http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/modelinfo/. Then, view them yourself at the NCEP Central Operations site at http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/.
Final stop, the National Weather Service Training Portal (http://www.nwstc.noaa.gov/nwstrn/). Here you can access web sites and documents related to meteorology and forecasting.
The internet offers many resources in the meteorological sciences With lots of practice, you too can create a forecast to share with your family and friends. Don't get discouraged by a bust (that's meteorology lingo for an unverified forecast)! It happens to the best of us. Just keep at it, and soon you too can be on your way to forecasting.
For more information on schools that offer degree and certificate program in meteorology, visit http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/edu/schools.html.
REMEMBER THE THINGS WE WOULD LIKE YOU TO REPORT
SNOWFALL - After 2 inches of new snow, and then at 4 inches, 6 inches, and every 3 inches thereafter (e.g., 2, 4, 6, 9, 12, etc.)
FREEZING RAIN - As soon as you observe the occurrence of freezing rain or freezing drizzle, especially if it starts to collect on objects. Call again if the glaze/ice accumulation exceeds 1/4 inch
THUNDER SNOW - Location and time of occurrence
WIND SPEEDS - Report wind speeds greater than 40 mph
RAINFALL - Report any rainfall in excess of 3/4 inch in an hour
FUNNEL CLOUD - A "rotating" appendage descending from the base of a cumulonimbus cloud, but not touching the ground. If possible, always look at the area beneath the funnel cloud for flying debris. If flying debris is observed, it is a tornado.
TORNADO - Violently rotating column of air descending from a cumulonimbus cloud and touching the ground. Look for flying debris. If possible, report any injuries or fatalities. Tornadoes usually rotate counterclockwise, and this can be a good indicator if what you are observing is a tornado or other meteorological phenomena. However, this is not always true. When it doubt, report!
HAIL - Report any size hail. Specify the diameter based on the hail scale (coins)
FLOODING - Report any flooding you observe, including basement, road, stream, creek, and ice jam flooding. Report the name of the stream/creek, road number/name (if applicable) and depth
DAMAGE - Report all storm-related damage (large branches, fallen trees, structural damage, flood damage, etc.) Even if it is several days after the event.
WIND DAMAGE
One of the most significant threats with thunderstorms is wind damage. Wind damage can come in two forms: tornadic and straight-line. The difference is not always obvious and may create confusion to spotters. Damage caused by tornadoes typically has a high damage gradient. Whereas, with downbursts, the damage gradient is usually smaller. The debris pattern associated with a tornado is typically narrow and convergent. However, with a downburst, it is often broad and divergent. With a tornado you may see swirls or mud "splatters" on walls as well as projectile damage (i.e., sticks, stones, bricks thrown into structures) on several different sides of the structure. With straight-line wind damage (i.e., damage caused by downbursts), it is possible to have projectile damage along with mud "splatters", however, it is typically limited to one side of the structure. Also, remember that many trees can exhibit a twisted damage pattern even in downburst damage. This does not necessarily mean that it was a tornado. Many trees can appear twisted because of a weaker section of their structure or an uneven leaf canopy which causes uneven wind load and subsequent twisting. Downbursts can produce twisted trees.
REMEMBER OUR DEFINITION OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
A storm which produces large hail (3/4 inch or greater) and/or wind gusts to 58 mph (50 kts) or greater (NOTE: it does not include lightning. All thunderstorms are deadly and dangerous due to lightning).
AMATEUR RADIO NOTES
The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh would like to extend a thank you to all of the amateur radio operators who assisted in the office during the past SKYWARN Season: Alan (KB3DHC), Gorman (N3YQY), Jim (N3KJJ), Dave (WA3YEA), Rick (AE3C), Jeff (N3YEA), Mike (WA3PYU), Kathy (KA3VXM), Dave (KB3FXI), Mike (KB3GTJ), Mike (KB3HCG), Bob (WB3FXC), and Josh (KB3GIO). If we forgot anybody, thank you as well!
We would also like to thank each county in our County Warning Area (CWA) for their participation in the Amateur Radio SKYWARN program. It is sometimes difficult to get an amateur radio operator to staff the station at the National Weather Service. This sometimes results in frustration and the need for Net Control Stations to report via the SKYWARN Reporting Number. Your patience and assistance is greatly appreciated.
THANK YOU TO ALL SKYWARNERS!!!
The National Weather Service would also like to extend a thank you to all of our SKYWARN members. Although technology allows us to survey weather conditions across a very large area, nothing can replace a ground report from you, our dedicated observers! Your reports are critical to our mission: 1) They immediately add credibility to our warnings 2) They alert everyone downstream of the potential for severe weather 3) They help us make decisions on additional warnings, watches and statements 4) They help us verify our warnings 5) They serve as part of the national severe weather archives (National Climatic Data Center) and to build a severe weather climatology. Most importantly, your reports help us save lives and protect property! Often times a single SKYWARN report leads to the issuance of a warning, watch or statement. Keep up the great work, and thank you all for your participation! Remember that safety does come first. Only report severe weather when you can do so safely! Always report severe weather to the SKYWARN Number you were provided during your training. If you are not a SKYWARN Member, you can report severe weather to the National Weather Service through the toll-free public line at 1-877-633-6772.