Amherst County Requested Product
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FNUS51 KRNK 310920
FWFRNK

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR SW VA...SE WV AND NW NC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
520 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY

.DISCUSSION...

WESTERLY WIND FLOW REMAINED IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...MAINTAINING LOW 
HUMIDITY WHICH ALLOWED FOR ONLY MODEST RECOVERY OF FUEL MOISTURES. 
THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS MORNING 
TO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...AND CAUSE 
RH VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF 
THE AREA.

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT 
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY 
AFTER SUNRISE AND WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE. WIND SPEEDS BY EARLY 
AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH AND GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH FOR 
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED 
ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST 
AREA THIS EVENING...TRIGGERING SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ONLY A 
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF WETTING RAINFALL...MAINLY ACROSS THE 
RIDGES OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS...
ALONG WITH SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS...THEN MOVES 
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS WITH SHOWERY WEATHER ANTICIPATED 
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

VAZ035-312215-
AMHERST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AMHERST
520 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      WED          

CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLEAR       MCLEAR       
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            
MAX/MIN TEMP          72           37           63           
MIN/MAX RH %          21           72           29           
WND20FT2MIN/EARLY(MPH)SW  4G20     W  9G29      NW  3        
WND20FT2MIN/LATE(MPH) SW 13G29     NW  4G19     LGT/VAR      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         
PRECIP DURATION                                              
PRECIP BEGIN                                                 
PRECIP END                                                   
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL)    8810                      7160         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   W 44                      NW 13        
VENT RATE (MPH-FT)    387640                    93080        
DISPERSION (EVENING)               FAIR                      
LAL                   1            1            1            
HAINES INDEX          5            4            4            
ADI EARLY             61 GOOD      108 VERY GOOD41 GEN GOOD  
ADI LATE              155 VERY GOOD8 POOR       86 GOOD      
MAX LVORI EARLY       3            2            3            
MAX LVORI LATE        1            3            2            

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. MINIMUM RH 40 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
MINIMUM RH 61 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY.
COOLER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. MINIMUM RH
38 PERCENT. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. MINIMUM RH 32 PERCENT. WEST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S. MINIMUM RH 42 PERCENT. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.  PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.


 

Site specific forecasts for wildfires and prescribed burns may be obtained by contacting the National Weather Service in Blacksburg, VA at (540) 552-0084 or by submitting a Spot Request over the Internet.

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