NY Terminal Aviation Weather Discussion (AFD) - Prepared: 709 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03-05Z TONIGHT. RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBY
DEVELOPS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. LIFR AT TIMES IN RAIN POSSIBLE 9-14Z.
CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER AROUND THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS.

LIGHT S WINDS INTO THE EVENING TURN TOWARD THE SE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS AT 2000FT RANGING FROM 50-65 KT.

SURFACE WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY 10-13Z. SPEEDS 
INCREASE QUICKLY TO 15 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KT. A FEW COASTAL 
GUSTS COULD REACH 40 KT.

5 Day General Aviation Outlook:

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST 
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR 
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST 
DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...BECOMING VFR. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY.
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
.FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.


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KJFK Terminal Weather:

FTNA35 KJFK 232342 RRI
KJFK 232337Z 2400/2506 18007KT P6SM SCT100 BKN200
     FM240400 15010KT P6SM BKN010
     FM240600 15017G27KT 2SM RA BR OVC005 WS020/16045KT
     FM240900 16021G35KT 2SM RA BR OVC004 WS020/17060KT
     FM241200 18025G38KT 3SM SHRA BR OVC006 WS020/21050KT
     FM241500 19020G30KT 6SM BR BKN008 BKN012
     FM242000 19018G33KT P6SM SCT012 BKN020
     FM250400 20015G25KT P6SM BKN012 OVC020
KJFK Forecaster Comments Not Available at This Time
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KLGA Terminal Weather:
FTUS80 KLGA 232339 RRD
KLGA 232337Z 2400/2424 18007KT P6SM SCT100 BKN200
     FM240400 14010KT P6SM BKN010
     FM240600 13016G26KT 2SM RA BR OVC005 WS020/16045KT
     FM240900 16019G32KT 2SM RA BR OVC004 WS020/17060KT
     FM241200 18021G36KT 3SM SHRA BR OVC006 WS020/21050KT
     FM241500 19018G28KT 6SM BR BKN008 BKN012
     FM242000 19016G32KT P6SM SCT012 BKN020
KLGA Forecaster Comments Not Available at This Time
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KEWR Terminal Weather:
FTUS80 KEWR 232339 RRB
KEWR 232337Z 2400/2506 16004KT P6SM SCT100 BKN200
     FM240300 14008KT P6SM BKN010
     FM240500 14013KT 2SM RA BR OVC005 WS020/16045KT
     FM240800 16016G28KT 2SM RA BR OVC004 WS020/17055KT
     FM241100 18018G32KT 3SM SHRA BR OVC006 WS020/21045KT
     FM241400 20015G28KT 6SM BR SCT008 BKN015
     FM241900 21018G32KT P6SM SCT015 BKN040
     FM250200 21015G25KT P6SM BKN015 BKN040
KEWR Forecaster Comments Not Available at This Time
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KTEB Terminal Weather:
FTUS80 KTEB 232339 RRG
KTEB 232337Z 2400/2424 16004KT P6SM SCT100 BKN200
     FM240300 14006KT P6SM BKN010
     FM240500 15010KT 2SM RA BR OVC005 WS020/16045KT
     FM240800 17012G20KT 2SM RA BR OVC004 WS020/17055KT
     FM241100 18012G21KT 3SM SHRA BR OVC006 WS020/21045KT
     FM241400 20012G21KT 6SM BR SCT008 BKN015
     FM241900 21015G28KT P6SM SCT015 BKN040
KTEB Forecaster Comments Not Available at This Time
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KHPN Terminal Weather:
FTUS80 KHPN 232339 RRC
KHPN 232337Z 2400/2424 16004KT P6SM SCT100 BKN200
     FM240500 14006KT P6SM BKN010
     FM240700 14009KT 2SM RA BR OVC005 WS020/16045KT
     FM241000 17012G20KT 1SM RA BR OVC004 WS020/17055KT
     FM241300 18012G21KT 2SM SHRA BR OVC004 WS020/21045KT
     FM241600 20012G21KT 3SM BR BKN005 BKN010
     FM241900 21015G28KT 6SM BR SCT010 BKN015 AMD NOT SKED
KHPN Forecaster Comments Not Available at This Time
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KISP Terminal Weather:
FTUS80 KISP 232339 RRC
KISP 232337Z 2400/2424 17008KT P6SM SCT100 BKN200
     FM240400 16008KT P6SM BKN010
     FM240600 15014G22KT 2SM RA BR OVC005 WS020/16045KT
     FM240900 17020G32KT 2SM RA BR OVC004 WS020/17065KT
     FM241200 18021G39KT 3SM SHRA BR OVC006 WS020/21055KT
     FM241500 19018G32KT 6SM BR BKN006 BKN012
     FM241900 18020G37KT 6SM BR SCT012 OVC020
KISP Forecaster Comments Not Available at This Time

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5 Day General Outlook:

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST 
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR 
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST 
DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...BECOMING VFR. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY.
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
.FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.


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