PHL Terminal Aviation Weather Discussion (AFD) - Prepared: 332 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014


.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, 
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. 
HOWEVER, THINK THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN 
WEST OF THE REGION. THE COVERAGE THROUGH THIS TIME IS TOO LIMITED 
TO MENTION IN MOST OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. STARTING AROUND 00Z, WE 
SHOULD SEE A LINE OF SHRA AND TSRA MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE 
WEST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS 
GENERAL PATTERN AND TIMING. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME QUESTION OF THE 
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE (WHICH MAY NOT GO SOUTH OF PHL), AND IF 
THE LINE WILL START TO SCT BEFORE IT REACHES THE DELAWARE RIVER 
VALLEY. THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR THE SE PA SITES (KRDG 
AND KABE) AND KTTN WHERE THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE, BUT ONLY HAVE 
MENTION OF VCSH FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE SITES.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER 06Z, EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 
AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF BR 
DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, THINK THIS 
IS UNLIKELY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. 
SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CAUSE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ON THU
AND FRI MORNINGS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH 
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

 

PHL Terminal Aviation Forecast (TAF)

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****        MAGNETIC DIRECTIONS         ****
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KPHL 09/02/2014 23:53:16 GMT 260 14 KT
KPHL 09/02/2014 23:51:17 GMT 240 09 KT
KPHL 09/02/2014 23:49:17 GMT 240 07 KT
KPHL 09/02/2014 23:47:17 GMT 240 08 KT
KPHL 09/02/2014 23:45:17 GMT 240 08 KT
KPHL 09/02/2014 23:43:17 GMT 230 07 KT
KPHL 09/02/2014 23:41:18 GMT 230 08 KT
KPHL 09/02/2014 23:39:18 GMT 230 07 KT
KPHL 09/02/2014 23:37:18 GMT 210 07 KT
KPHL 09/02/2014 23:35:18 GMT 220 09 KT
TAFPHL (View previous versions )
KPHL 022349Z 0300/0406 22012KT P6SM SCT060 BKN150
     FM030005 VRB16G34KT 1SM TSRA BKN040CB OVC080
     FM030035 25012KT 3SM -TSRA BKN035CB OVC080
     FM030100 24006KT P6SM -SHRA VCTS BKN040CB BKN100
     FM030200 25005KT P6SM SCT040 BKN150
     FM030700 29006KT P6SM SCT150
     FM031300 33010KT P6SM FEW200
     FM031900 29008KT P6SM SKC
Islip Terminal Information

ZNY SWAP/TSTM Information

(ZNY SWAP STATEMENT) (Click for PDF File) (ZNY BRIEFING) (Click for PDF File)

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***        NY AIR ROUTE TRAFFIC CONTROL CENTER      ***
***                DAILY SWAP STATEMENT             ***
*******************************************************
NY AIR ROUTE TRAFFIC CONTROL CENTER
DAILY SWAP STATEMENT
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 2, 2014

SWAP IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z.
TSRA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS ZOB/ZID AIRSPACE AHEAD OF A COLD 
FRONT...FORMING INTO A LINE AND REACHING THE ZNY/ZOB BORDER AROUND 
19-20Z. OTHER ISOLD-WDLY SCT TS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE. 
PRIMARY IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM J95-J6. IMPACTS TO N90/PHL TRACONS AND 
J48-J121 ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 23Z.

ADDT'L INFO:
AZEZU-PAEPR-HANRI(L453-M201): LINE OF TS ACROSS M201. TS ALSO 
IMPACTING L453 BETWEEN AZEZU AND PAEPR. 
DITCH:  IMPACTS PBSL AFT 23Z.
EAST GATES:  SLGT CHANCE OF IMPACTS BUT TS WILL BE ISOLD. 
TOMORROW MORNINGS SWAP OUTLOOK:   SWAP IS NOT EXPECTED.
$$
MMD

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